Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...? — Discussion

QMG-MACRO · 2025-12-16T19:36:41.877Z

Discussion about Fed rate cut by...?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

$3,686,940 Vol.

Jan 28, 2027

October 2026 Meeting

$174,557 Vol.

December 2026 Meeting

$371,886 Vol.

January 2027 Meeting

$27 Vol.

10%

March 2027 Meeting

$0 Vol.

22%

April 2027 Meeting

$0 Vol.

44%

June 2027 Meeting

$27 Vol.

44%

July 2027 Meeting

$102 Vol.

50%

$3,686,940 Vol.

October 2026 Meeting

$174,557 Vol.

December 2026 Meeting

$371,886 Vol.

January 2027 Meeting

$27 Vol.

10%

March 2027 Meeting

$0 Vol.

22%

April 2027 Meeting

$0 Vol.

44%

June 2027 Meeting

$27 Vol.

44%

July 2027 Meeting

$102 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET

Volume

$3,686,940

End Date

Jan 29, 2028

Market Opened

Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Volume

$3,686,940

End Date

Jan 29, 2028

Market Opened

Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

82%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

56%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed rate cut by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "July 2027 Meeting" at 50%, followed by "April 2027 Meeting" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed rate cut by...?" has generated $3.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Fed rate cut by...?" is "July 2027 Meeting" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 2027 Meeting" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Fed rate cut by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed rate cut by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.7 million traded on “Fed rate cut by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 50¢ for "July 2027 Meeting" in the "Fed rate cut by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 50% chance that "July 2027 Meeting" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 50¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 50¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Fed rate cut by...?" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Jan 28, 2028 — that's roughly over 1 year away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "Fed rate cut by...?" market has an active community of 31 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed rate cut by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (31)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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