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Politics·Florida

FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway 86%

Michael Kirwan 9%

Brit Robinson 3.7%

Polymarket

$16,262 Vol.

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway 86%

Michael Kirwan 9%

Brit Robinson 3.7%

Polymarket

$16,262 Vol.

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway

$10,419 Vol.

86%

Michael Kirwan

$4,774 Vol.

9%

Brit Robinson

$1,070 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.LaShonda "L.J." Holloway holds an 85.5% implied probability in the FL-04 Democratic primary market, reflecting her substantial lead in recent polling and strong name recognition as a two-time nominee against Republican incumbent Aaron Bean. With the August 18 primary just days away and early voting underway, surveys show her support at 25–41%, driven primarily by backing among Black voters who comprise a large share of the district's Democratic electorate. Michael Kirwan trails at 8.5% despite raising far more funds, while Brit Robinson sits at 3.7%. Traders appear to view Holloway's residual visibility and demographic alignment as decisive factors over fundraising edges or late-campaign dynamics in this low-turnout contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$16,262
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.LaShonda "L.J." Holloway holds an 85.5% implied probability in the FL-04 Democratic primary market, reflecting her substantial lead in recent polling and strong name recognition as a two-time nominee against Republican incumbent Aaron Bean. With the August 18 primary just days away and early voting underway, surveys show her support at 25–41%, driven primarily by backing among Black voters who comprise a large share of the district's Democratic electorate. Michael Kirwan trails at 8.5% despite raising far more funds, while Brit Robinson sits at 3.7%. Traders appear to view Holloway's residual visibility and demographic alignment as decisive factors over fundraising edges or late-campaign dynamics in this low-turnout contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$16,262
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "LaShonda "L.J." Holloway" at 86%, followed by "Michael Kirwan" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $16.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "LaShonda "L.J." Holloway" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Kirwan" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.