**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a high near 30°C in Istanbul on September 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover.** This setup favors strong daytime solar heating, consistent with late-summer patterns before the seasonal cooling trend accelerates later in the month. Multiple operational runs project daytime maxima of 29–31°C, though model spread and official station measurement criteria introduce some uncertainty around exact resolution. Traders appear to be weighting nearer-term guidance and historical September variability, placing the strongest implied probability on 27°C while discounting lower or higher extremes. Fresh model updates and any adjustments in steering patterns will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
28°C 44%
27°C 44%
26°C 37%
25°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
5%
24°C
2%
25°C
36%
26°C
37%
27°C
44%
28°C
30%
29°C
7%
30°C
6%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
4%
28°C 44%
27°C 44%
26°C 37%
25°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
36%
26°C
$0 Vol.
37%
27°C
$13 Vol.
44%
28°C
$11 Vol.
30%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a high near 30°C in Istanbul on September 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover.** This setup favors strong daytime solar heating, consistent with late-summer patterns before the seasonal cooling trend accelerates later in the month. Multiple operational runs project daytime maxima of 29–31°C, though model spread and official station measurement criteria introduce some uncertainty around exact resolution. Traders appear to be weighting nearer-term guidance and historical September variability, placing the strongest implied probability on 27°C while discounting lower or higher extremes. Fresh model updates and any adjustments in steering patterns will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$24End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a high near 30°C in Istanbul on September 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover.** This setup favors strong daytime solar heating, consistent with late-summer patterns before the seasonal cooling trend accelerates later in the month. Multiple operational runs project daytime maxima of 29–31°C, though model spread and official station measurement criteria introduce some uncertainty around exact resolution. Traders appear to be weighting nearer-term guidance and historical September variability, placing the strongest implied probability on 27°C while discounting lower or higher extremes. Fresh model updates and any adjustments in steering patterns will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a high near 30°C in Istanbul on September 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and minimal cloud cover.** This setup favors strong daytime solar heating, consistent with late-summer patterns before the seasonal cooling trend accelerates later in the month. Multiple operational runs project daytime maxima of 29–31°C, though model spread and official station measurement criteria introduce some uncertainty around exact resolution. Traders appear to be weighting nearer-term guidance and historical September variability, placing the strongest implied probability on 27°C while discounting lower or higher extremes. Fresh model updates and any adjustments in steering patterns will be key inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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