Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and European ensembles points to clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow over Istanbul on September 5, favoring strong nighttime radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures 2–4°C below daytime highs of 29–30°C, aligning with climatological early-September lows near 17–18°C. Current forecasts cluster the overnight minimum between 18–23°C, with some runs dipping to 18°C or slightly below due to enhanced cooling under prolonged clear conditions. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-below bucket reflects this potential for the coolest outcomes amid model spread and the rapid approach of the resolution window, while warmer buckets capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds. Updated runs from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 12–24 hours will likely tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
17°C or below 87%
18°C 50%
24°C 50%
25°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
87%
18°C
50%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
28%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
50%
25°C
50%
26°C
50%
27°C or higher
13%
17°C or below 87%
18°C 50%
24°C 50%
25°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
87%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
28%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
50%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and European ensembles points to clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow over Istanbul on September 5, favoring strong nighttime radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures 2–4°C below daytime highs of 29–30°C, aligning with climatological early-September lows near 17–18°C. Current forecasts cluster the overnight minimum between 18–23°C, with some runs dipping to 18°C or slightly below due to enhanced cooling under prolonged clear conditions. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-below bucket reflects this potential for the coolest outcomes amid model spread and the rapid approach of the resolution window, while warmer buckets capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds. Updated runs from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 12–24 hours will likely tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and European ensembles points to clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow over Istanbul on September 5, favoring strong nighttime radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures 2–4°C below daytime highs of 29–30°C, aligning with climatological early-September lows near 17–18°C. Current forecasts cluster the overnight minimum between 18–23°C, with some runs dipping to 18°C or slightly below due to enhanced cooling under prolonged clear conditions. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-below bucket reflects this potential for the coolest outcomes amid model spread and the rapid approach of the resolution window, while warmer buckets capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds. Updated runs from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 12–24 hours will likely tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and European ensembles points to clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow over Istanbul on September 5, favoring strong nighttime radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures 2–4°C below daytime highs of 29–30°C, aligning with climatological early-September lows near 17–18°C. Current forecasts cluster the overnight minimum between 18–23°C, with some runs dipping to 18°C or slightly below due to enhanced cooling under prolonged clear conditions. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-below bucket reflects this potential for the coolest outcomes amid model spread and the rapid approach of the resolution window, while warmer buckets capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds. Updated runs from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 12–24 hours will likely tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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