PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station recorded a maximum of 31.2°C on August 15, confirming the market's 100% consensus on a 31°C high for Manila. Prevailing southwest monsoon conditions, high humidity, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms suppressed solar heating and convective development, keeping daytime peaks aligned with the typical 30–32°C August range. Ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and AccuWeather showed tight agreement around this level, with minimal model spread. Only an abrupt shift to clear skies or altered steering patterns could have allowed modest additional warming, but real-time surface data and monsoon persistence made such deviations improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 15?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$34,316 Vol.
$34,316 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$34,316 Vol.
$34,316 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$487 Vol.
No
26°C
$332 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,427 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,367 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,130 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,436 Vol.
No
31°C
$10,674 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$5,398 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,832 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,648 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$584 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station recorded a maximum of 31.2°C on August 15, confirming the market's 100% consensus on a 31°C high for Manila. Prevailing southwest monsoon conditions, high humidity, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms suppressed solar heating and convective development, keeping daytime peaks aligned with the typical 30–32°C August range. Ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and AccuWeather showed tight agreement around this level, with minimal model spread. Only an abrupt shift to clear skies or altered steering patterns could have allowed modest additional warming, but real-time surface data and monsoon persistence made such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$34,316End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station recorded a maximum of 31.2°C on August 15, confirming the market's 100% consensus on a 31°C high for Manila. Prevailing southwest monsoon conditions, high humidity, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms suppressed solar heating and convective development, keeping daytime peaks aligned with the typical 30–32°C August range. Ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and AccuWeather showed tight agreement around this level, with minimal model spread. Only an abrupt shift to clear skies or altered steering patterns could have allowed modest additional warming, but real-time surface data and monsoon persistence made such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,316End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station recorded a maximum of 31.2°C on August 15, confirming the market's 100% consensus on a 31°C high for Manila. Prevailing southwest monsoon conditions, high humidity, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms suppressed solar heating and convective development, keeping daytime peaks aligned with the typical 30–32°C August range. Ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and AccuWeather showed tight agreement around this level, with minimal model spread. Only an abrupt shift to clear skies or altered steering patterns could have allowed modest additional warming, but real-time surface data and monsoon persistence made such deviations improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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