Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters moderates temperatures year-round, while August marks peak rainy season with frequent afternoon convection, cloud cover, and showers that cap daytime heating. Official seasonal averages place the typical daily high near 24°C, and extended forecasts for August 20, 2026, cluster in the 23–26°C range amid ongoing moisture and moderate easterly flow. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probabilities around 49–65% for 23–27°C outcomes, with traders weighting the strong historical precedent and limited model spread for significant departures. Extremes below 22°C or above 28°C carry low odds because sustained clear skies or anomalous ridging would be required to shift the temperature profile meaningfully, and no such signals appear in recent guidance. Updated model runs and any overnight observations on the 19th will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 20?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 20?
25°C 44%
24°C 21%
26°C 18%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
21%
25°C
44%
26°C
18%
27°C
11%
28°C
4%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
4%
25°C 44%
24°C 21%
26°C 18%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1 Vol.
5%
23°C
$9 Vol.
10%
24°C
$0 Vol.
21%
25°C
$7 Vol.
44%
26°C
$0 Vol.
18%
27°C
$39 Vol.
11%
28°C
$3 Vol.
4%
29°C
$10 Vol.
7%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters moderates temperatures year-round, while August marks peak rainy season with frequent afternoon convection, cloud cover, and showers that cap daytime heating. Official seasonal averages place the typical daily high near 24°C, and extended forecasts for August 20, 2026, cluster in the 23–26°C range amid ongoing moisture and moderate easterly flow. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probabilities around 49–65% for 23–27°C outcomes, with traders weighting the strong historical precedent and limited model spread for significant departures. Extremes below 22°C or above 28°C carry low odds because sustained clear skies or anomalous ridging would be required to shift the temperature profile meaningfully, and no such signals appear in recent guidance. Updated model runs and any overnight observations on the 19th will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$72End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters moderates temperatures year-round, while August marks peak rainy season with frequent afternoon convection, cloud cover, and showers that cap daytime heating. Official seasonal averages place the typical daily high near 24°C, and extended forecasts for August 20, 2026, cluster in the 23–26°C range amid ongoing moisture and moderate easterly flow. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probabilities around 49–65% for 23–27°C outcomes, with traders weighting the strong historical precedent and limited model spread for significant departures. Extremes below 22°C or above 28°C carry low odds because sustained clear skies or anomalous ridging would be required to shift the temperature profile meaningfully, and no such signals appear in recent guidance. Updated model runs and any overnight observations on the 19th will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$72End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters moderates temperatures year-round, while August marks peak rainy season with frequent afternoon convection, cloud cover, and showers that cap daytime heating. Official seasonal averages place the typical daily high near 24°C, and extended forecasts for August 20, 2026, cluster in the 23–26°C range amid ongoing moisture and moderate easterly flow. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probabilities around 49–65% for 23–27°C outcomes, with traders weighting the strong historical precedent and limited model spread for significant departures. Extremes below 22°C or above 28°C carry low odds because sustained clear skies or anomalous ridging would be required to shift the temperature profile meaningfully, and no such signals appear in recent guidance. Updated model runs and any overnight observations on the 19th will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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