Official forecasts from agencies like Climatempo and international models point to a maximum of 30–33°C in São Paulo on August 20, 2026, driven by lingering high-pressure conditions promoting strong solar heating and low humidity before a polar air mass arrives late in the period. This setup supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C at 40% implied probability, with 30–33°C clustered near 26% each, reflecting model consensus on modest cooling from the prior day’s peak. Historical August averages near 25–27°C and the timing of the frontal passage create the narrow outcome band, while minimal rain risk and stable steering patterns limit upside or downside surprises ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 20?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 20?
32°C 58%
31°C 31%
30°C 11%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
6%
30°C
11%
31°C
31%
32°C
58%
33°C
7%
34°C
6%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 58%
31°C 31%
30°C 11%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
26°C or below
$3 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$3 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3 Vol.
3%
29°C
$3 Vol.
6%
30°C
$5 Vol.
11%
31°C
$51 Vol.
31%
32°C
$100 Vol.
58%
33°C
$3 Vol.
7%
34°C
$5 Vol.
6%
35°C
$5 Vol.
5%
36°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies like Climatempo and international models point to a maximum of 30–33°C in São Paulo on August 20, 2026, driven by lingering high-pressure conditions promoting strong solar heating and low humidity before a polar air mass arrives late in the period. This setup supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C at 40% implied probability, with 30–33°C clustered near 26% each, reflecting model consensus on modest cooling from the prior day’s peak. Historical August averages near 25–27°C and the timing of the frontal passage create the narrow outcome band, while minimal rain risk and stable steering patterns limit upside or downside surprises ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$186End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies like Climatempo and international models point to a maximum of 30–33°C in São Paulo on August 20, 2026, driven by lingering high-pressure conditions promoting strong solar heating and low humidity before a polar air mass arrives late in the period. This setup supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C at 40% implied probability, with 30–33°C clustered near 26% each, reflecting model consensus on modest cooling from the prior day’s peak. Historical August averages near 25–27°C and the timing of the frontal passage create the narrow outcome band, while minimal rain risk and stable steering patterns limit upside or downside surprises ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$186End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies like Climatempo and international models point to a maximum of 30–33°C in São Paulo on August 20, 2026, driven by lingering high-pressure conditions promoting strong solar heating and low humidity before a polar air mass arrives late in the period. This setup supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C at 40% implied probability, with 30–33°C clustered near 26% each, reflecting model consensus on modest cooling from the prior day’s peak. Historical August averages near 25–27°C and the timing of the frontal passage create the narrow outcome band, while minimal rain risk and stable steering patterns limit upside or downside surprises ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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