Recent forecasts from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to highs near 89–91°F for Miami on August 11 under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow, consistent with typical mid-August climatology (average highs around 88–90°F). Traders have priced 92–93°F as the clear leader (60.5% implied probability) due to the ongoing warm pattern following July 2026’s second-hottest month on record, with recent daily maxima frequently reaching 90–92°F and limited cloud cover or convection expected to allow stronger afternoon heating. Model consensus shows only modest thunderstorm chances that may not fully suppress temperatures, while heat indices remain elevated from high humidity. Lower-probability bins (94–95°F at 17%) reflect occasional upside potential if sea-breeze effects are minimal, but cooler outcomes below 90°F carry low odds given the absence of significant frontal systems. Updated NWS guidance and short-range model runs on August 10 will be the next key inputs for the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 11?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 11?
92-93°F 60%
90-91°F 23%
94-95°F 18%
96-97°F 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
23%
92-93°F
60%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
<1%
100°F or higher
<1%
92-93°F 60%
90-91°F 23%
94-95°F 18%
96-97°F 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
81°F or below
$317 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$244 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$162 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$11 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$79 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$2,067 Vol.
23%
92-93°F
$2,769 Vol.
60%
94-95°F
$267 Vol.
18%
96-97°F
$131 Vol.
2%
98-99°F
$37 Vol.
<1%
100°F or higher
$137 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to highs near 89–91°F for Miami on August 11 under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow, consistent with typical mid-August climatology (average highs around 88–90°F). Traders have priced 92–93°F as the clear leader (60.5% implied probability) due to the ongoing warm pattern following July 2026’s second-hottest month on record, with recent daily maxima frequently reaching 90–92°F and limited cloud cover or convection expected to allow stronger afternoon heating. Model consensus shows only modest thunderstorm chances that may not fully suppress temperatures, while heat indices remain elevated from high humidity. Lower-probability bins (94–95°F at 17%) reflect occasional upside potential if sea-breeze effects are minimal, but cooler outcomes below 90°F carry low odds given the absence of significant frontal systems. Updated NWS guidance and short-range model runs on August 10 will be the next key inputs for the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$6,219End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to highs near 89–91°F for Miami on August 11 under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow, consistent with typical mid-August climatology (average highs around 88–90°F). Traders have priced 92–93°F as the clear leader (60.5% implied probability) due to the ongoing warm pattern following July 2026’s second-hottest month on record, with recent daily maxima frequently reaching 90–92°F and limited cloud cover or convection expected to allow stronger afternoon heating. Model consensus shows only modest thunderstorm chances that may not fully suppress temperatures, while heat indices remain elevated from high humidity. Lower-probability bins (94–95°F at 17%) reflect occasional upside potential if sea-breeze effects are minimal, but cooler outcomes below 90°F carry low odds given the absence of significant frontal systems. Updated NWS guidance and short-range model runs on August 10 will be the next key inputs for the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,219End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to highs near 89–91°F for Miami on August 11 under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow, consistent with typical mid-August climatology (average highs around 88–90°F). Traders have priced 92–93°F as the clear leader (60.5% implied probability) due to the ongoing warm pattern following July 2026’s second-hottest month on record, with recent daily maxima frequently reaching 90–92°F and limited cloud cover or convection expected to allow stronger afternoon heating. Model consensus shows only modest thunderstorm chances that may not fully suppress temperatures, while heat indices remain elevated from high humidity. Lower-probability bins (94–95°F at 17%) reflect occasional upside potential if sea-breeze effects are minimal, but cooler outcomes below 90°F carry low odds given the absence of significant frontal systems. Updated NWS guidance and short-range model runs on August 10 will be the next key inputs for the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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