Recent ensemble forecasts from major models position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Milan’s highest temperature on August 25, with 27°C holding the strongest market-implied odds due to consensus around afternoon maxima near 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies. Short-term guidance shows modest spread from variable low-level moisture and light easterly flow that could limit full insolation, while historical Po Valley August climatology supports typical highs in the upper 20s. Latest model runs and observational trends through August 23 indicate stable high pressure without major synoptic shifts, keeping probabilities concentrated near the current leading outcomes and limiting tail risks above 29°C or below 25°C until final 24–48 hour updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 25?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 25?
27°C 36%
26°C 26%
28°C 25%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
26%
27°C
36%
28°C
25%
29°C
10%
30°C or higher
2%
27°C 36%
26°C 26%
28°C 25%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$51 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$13 Vol.
1%
24°C
$13 Vol.
2%
25°C
$191 Vol.
7%
26°C
$237 Vol.
26%
27°C
$129 Vol.
36%
28°C
$66 Vol.
25%
29°C
$26 Vol.
10%
30°C or higher
$9 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Milan’s highest temperature on August 25, with 27°C holding the strongest market-implied odds due to consensus around afternoon maxima near 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies. Short-term guidance shows modest spread from variable low-level moisture and light easterly flow that could limit full insolation, while historical Po Valley August climatology supports typical highs in the upper 20s. Latest model runs and observational trends through August 23 indicate stable high pressure without major synoptic shifts, keeping probabilities concentrated near the current leading outcomes and limiting tail risks above 29°C or below 25°C until final 24–48 hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$843End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Milan’s highest temperature on August 25, with 27°C holding the strongest market-implied odds due to consensus around afternoon maxima near 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies. Short-term guidance shows modest spread from variable low-level moisture and light easterly flow that could limit full insolation, while historical Po Valley August climatology supports typical highs in the upper 20s. Latest model runs and observational trends through August 23 indicate stable high pressure without major synoptic shifts, keeping probabilities concentrated near the current leading outcomes and limiting tail risks above 29°C or below 25°C until final 24–48 hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$843End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Milan’s highest temperature on August 25, with 27°C holding the strongest market-implied odds due to consensus around afternoon maxima near 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies. Short-term guidance shows modest spread from variable low-level moisture and light easterly flow that could limit full insolation, while historical Po Valley August climatology supports typical highs in the upper 20s. Latest model runs and observational trends through August 23 indicate stable high pressure without major synoptic shifts, keeping probabilities concentrated near the current leading outcomes and limiting tail risks above 29°C or below 25°C until final 24–48 hour updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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