Recent official forecasts from Italian meteorological services and global models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate overnight lows for Milan on August 25 in the 19–22°C range, with scattered showers and moderate easterly winds limiting radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 18°C). This supports the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 15–20°C, where subtle differences in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2°C. Recent cooling from the August 22 low of 16.2°C reflects transient instability, yet the broader late-summer pattern favors values near or slightly above seasonal normals without strong cold advection expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 25?
24°C or higher 35%
18°C 28%
19°C 28%
20°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
14°C or below
19%
15°C
21%
16°C
25%
17°C
27%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
28%
21°C
23%
22°C
8%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
35%
24°C or higher 35%
18°C 28%
19°C 28%
20°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
14°C or below
$30 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
28%
21°C
$4 Vol.
23%
22°C
$5 Vol.
8%
23°C
$5 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$50 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Italian meteorological services and global models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate overnight lows for Milan on August 25 in the 19–22°C range, with scattered showers and moderate easterly winds limiting radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 18°C). This supports the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 15–20°C, where subtle differences in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2°C. Recent cooling from the August 22 low of 16.2°C reflects transient instability, yet the broader late-summer pattern favors values near or slightly above seasonal normals without strong cold advection expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$94End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Italian meteorological services and global models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate overnight lows for Milan on August 25 in the 19–22°C range, with scattered showers and moderate easterly winds limiting radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 18°C). This supports the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 15–20°C, where subtle differences in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2°C. Recent cooling from the August 22 low of 16.2°C reflects transient instability, yet the broader late-summer pattern favors values near or slightly above seasonal normals without strong cold advection expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Italian meteorological services and global models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate overnight lows for Milan on August 25 in the 19–22°C range, with scattered showers and moderate easterly winds limiting radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 18°C). This supports the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 15–20°C, where subtle differences in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2°C. Recent cooling from the August 22 low of 16.2°C reflects transient instability, yet the broader late-summer pattern favors values near or slightly above seasonal normals without strong cold advection expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions