Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy, supporting daytime highs of 28–29 °C in Milan on August 24 with light southeasterly flow and limited cloud cover through midday. These conditions favor the current market-implied probabilities, where 28 °C leads at 36 % and 29 °C follows at 24 %, as afternoon mixing and any developing instability remain modest. Ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of exceeding 30 °C or falling below 27 °C, consistent with climatological August norms near 27 °C and the absence of strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine the precise peak if convective timing shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 24?
28°C 36%
29°C 33%
27°C 11%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
11%
28°C
36%
29°C
33%
30°C
15%
31°C or higher
2%
28°C 36%
29°C 33%
27°C 11%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
22°C
$15 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$30 Vol.
6%
27°C
$63 Vol.
11%
28°C
$129 Vol.
36%
29°C
$113 Vol.
33%
30°C
$16 Vol.
15%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy, supporting daytime highs of 28–29 °C in Milan on August 24 with light southeasterly flow and limited cloud cover through midday. These conditions favor the current market-implied probabilities, where 28 °C leads at 36 % and 29 °C follows at 24 %, as afternoon mixing and any developing instability remain modest. Ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of exceeding 30 °C or falling below 27 °C, consistent with climatological August norms near 27 °C and the absence of strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine the precise peak if convective timing shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$401End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy, supporting daytime highs of 28–29 °C in Milan on August 24 with light southeasterly flow and limited cloud cover through midday. These conditions favor the current market-implied probabilities, where 28 °C leads at 36 % and 29 °C follows at 24 %, as afternoon mixing and any developing instability remain modest. Ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of exceeding 30 °C or falling below 27 °C, consistent with climatological August norms near 27 °C and the absence of strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine the precise peak if convective timing shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$401End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy, supporting daytime highs of 28–29 °C in Milan on August 24 with light southeasterly flow and limited cloud cover through midday. These conditions favor the current market-implied probabilities, where 28 °C leads at 36 % and 29 °C follows at 24 %, as afternoon mixing and any developing instability remain modest. Ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of exceeding 30 °C or falling below 27 °C, consistent with climatological August norms near 27 °C and the absence of strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine the precise peak if convective timing shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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