Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 align closely with the market's leading outcomes, with models and climatological data pointing to a daily high in the 23–25°C range. August marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures hover near 23–24°C under typical subtropical high-pressure conditions, moderated by the urban heat island effect and Atlantic moisture. Recent observations show daytime highs of 24–25°C with minimal rainfall and light winds, supporting stable thermal profiles rather than rapid warming or cooling. Ensemble guidance indicates limited variability from steering patterns or frontal passages, keeping probabilities concentrated on these values while lower odds on extremes reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or clear-sky radiative extremes in the current setup. Updated model runs and official agency briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
24°C 42%
23°C 25%
25°C 21%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
8%
23°C
25%
24°C
42%
25°C
21%
26°C
7%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 42%
23°C 25%
25°C 21%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
$58 Vol.
1%
21°C
$73 Vol.
3%
22°C
$57 Vol.
8%
23°C
$133 Vol.
25%
24°C
$119 Vol.
42%
25°C
$269 Vol.
21%
26°C
$122 Vol.
7%
27°C
$36 Vol.
2%
28°C
$74 Vol.
1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$451 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 align closely with the market's leading outcomes, with models and climatological data pointing to a daily high in the 23–25°C range. August marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures hover near 23–24°C under typical subtropical high-pressure conditions, moderated by the urban heat island effect and Atlantic moisture. Recent observations show daytime highs of 24–25°C with minimal rainfall and light winds, supporting stable thermal profiles rather than rapid warming or cooling. Ensemble guidance indicates limited variability from steering patterns or frontal passages, keeping probabilities concentrated on these values while lower odds on extremes reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or clear-sky radiative extremes in the current setup. Updated model runs and official agency briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,402End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 align closely with the market's leading outcomes, with models and climatological data pointing to a daily high in the 23–25°C range. August marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures hover near 23–24°C under typical subtropical high-pressure conditions, moderated by the urban heat island effect and Atlantic moisture. Recent observations show daytime highs of 24–25°C with minimal rainfall and light winds, supporting stable thermal profiles rather than rapid warming or cooling. Ensemble guidance indicates limited variability from steering patterns or frontal passages, keeping probabilities concentrated on these values while lower odds on extremes reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or clear-sky radiative extremes in the current setup. Updated model runs and official agency briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,402End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 align closely with the market's leading outcomes, with models and climatological data pointing to a daily high in the 23–25°C range. August marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures hover near 23–24°C under typical subtropical high-pressure conditions, moderated by the urban heat island effect and Atlantic moisture. Recent observations show daytime highs of 24–25°C with minimal rainfall and light winds, supporting stable thermal profiles rather than rapid warming or cooling. Ensemble guidance indicates limited variability from steering patterns or frontal passages, keeping probabilities concentrated on these values while lower odds on extremes reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or clear-sky radiative extremes in the current setup. Updated model runs and official agency briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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