Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned outputs, and regional agencies converge on a September 3 high near 32°C for Tel Aviv, supported by stable high-pressure conditions, light westerly winds, and typical early-September Mediterranean climatology that keeps daytime maxima in the low 30s. Recent runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with partly cloudy skies and negligible precipitation risk limiting upward spikes, while sea-breeze moderation caps extremes. This alignment underpins the market’s 69% implied probability on 32°C and 22% on 33°C, with lower outcomes priced for any model cooling bias. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine resolution odds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3?
32°C 69%
33°C 22%
31°C 8%
30°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
8%
32°C
69%
33°C
22%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 69%
33°C 22%
31°C 8%
30°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
29°C or below
$488 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$463 Vol.
2%
31°C
$253 Vol.
8%
32°C
$1,158 Vol.
69%
33°C
$1,118 Vol.
22%
34°C
$225 Vol.
2%
35°C
$68 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$594 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$306 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned outputs, and regional agencies converge on a September 3 high near 32°C for Tel Aviv, supported by stable high-pressure conditions, light westerly winds, and typical early-September Mediterranean climatology that keeps daytime maxima in the low 30s. Recent runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with partly cloudy skies and negligible precipitation risk limiting upward spikes, while sea-breeze moderation caps extremes. This alignment underpins the market’s 69% implied probability on 32°C and 22% on 33°C, with lower outcomes priced for any model cooling bias. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine resolution odds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,411End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned outputs, and regional agencies converge on a September 3 high near 32°C for Tel Aviv, supported by stable high-pressure conditions, light westerly winds, and typical early-September Mediterranean climatology that keeps daytime maxima in the low 30s. Recent runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with partly cloudy skies and negligible precipitation risk limiting upward spikes, while sea-breeze moderation caps extremes. This alignment underpins the market’s 69% implied probability on 32°C and 22% on 33°C, with lower outcomes priced for any model cooling bias. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine resolution odds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,411End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned outputs, and regional agencies converge on a September 3 high near 32°C for Tel Aviv, supported by stable high-pressure conditions, light westerly winds, and typical early-September Mediterranean climatology that keeps daytime maxima in the low 30s. Recent runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with partly cloudy skies and negligible precipitation risk limiting upward spikes, while sea-breeze moderation caps extremes. This alignment underpins the market’s 69% implied probability on 32°C and 22% on 33°C, with lower outcomes priced for any model cooling bias. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine resolution odds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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