Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and AccuWeather converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 12, 2026, matching the market's complete weighting on the 14°C outcome. August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly and southerly flows that advect cool maritime air masses across the region. Recent days recorded maxima of only 10–12°C amid stronger southerlies, but the latest model runs indicate a developing front and moderating northerly influence that support modest daytime warming while maintaining elevated winds and cloud cover. Traders price in this narrow band because small changes in frontal timing or wind direction could still shift the observed peak by 1°C. Official MetService updates on August 11 provide the final guidance ahead of resolution, and any late deviation from the consensus would need to overcome the accumulated observational evidence and model agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 12?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$139,142 Vol.
$139,142 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$139,142 Vol.
$139,142 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
9°C or below
$9,271 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$11,711 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$17,982 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$25,960 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$27,864 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$15,189 Vol.
100%
15°C
$12,844 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$5,681 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,992 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,234 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$5,413 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and AccuWeather converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 12, 2026, matching the market's complete weighting on the 14°C outcome. August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly and southerly flows that advect cool maritime air masses across the region. Recent days recorded maxima of only 10–12°C amid stronger southerlies, but the latest model runs indicate a developing front and moderating northerly influence that support modest daytime warming while maintaining elevated winds and cloud cover. Traders price in this narrow band because small changes in frontal timing or wind direction could still shift the observed peak by 1°C. Official MetService updates on August 11 provide the final guidance ahead of resolution, and any late deviation from the consensus would need to overcome the accumulated observational evidence and model agreement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$139,142End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and AccuWeather converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 12, 2026, matching the market's complete weighting on the 14°C outcome. August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly and southerly flows that advect cool maritime air masses across the region. Recent days recorded maxima of only 10–12°C amid stronger southerlies, but the latest model runs indicate a developing front and moderating northerly influence that support modest daytime warming while maintaining elevated winds and cloud cover. Traders price in this narrow band because small changes in frontal timing or wind direction could still shift the observed peak by 1°C. Official MetService updates on August 11 provide the final guidance ahead of resolution, and any late deviation from the consensus would need to overcome the accumulated observational evidence and model agreement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$139,142End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and AccuWeather converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 12, 2026, matching the market's complete weighting on the 14°C outcome. August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly and southerly flows that advect cool maritime air masses across the region. Recent days recorded maxima of only 10–12°C amid stronger southerlies, but the latest model runs indicate a developing front and moderating northerly influence that support modest daytime warming while maintaining elevated winds and cloud cover. Traders price in this narrow band because small changes in frontal timing or wind direction could still shift the observed peak by 1°C. Official MetService updates on August 11 provide the final guidance ahead of resolution, and any late deviation from the consensus would need to overcome the accumulated observational evidence and model agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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