Global seismicity during the May 11–17 window has remained close to the USGS long-term average of five to eight magnitude-5.5 or greater events per week, positioning six as the clearest market leader. Steady activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge segments has produced no major magnitude-7+ shocks or intense aftershock sequences that would push counts higher. Official USGS catalogs through the period show consistent daily rates without anomalous clustering or rapid-fire swarms, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical baseline patterns while allowing modest probability for seven events if final detections add one or two borderline cases before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 55.6%
8 2.0%
5 1.0%
4 <1%
$134,879 Vol.
$134,879 Vol.
May 17, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
73%
7
38%
8
9%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
6 55.6%
8 2.0%
5 1.0%
4 <1%
$134,879 Vol.
$134,879 Vol.
May 17, 2026
≤3
$57,847 Vol.
<1%
4
$20,043 Vol.
1%
5
$20,156 Vol.
1%
6
$4,227 Vol.
73%
7
$2,960 Vol.
38%
8
$5,412 Vol.
9%
9
$6,225 Vol.
<1%
>9
$18,009 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity during the May 11–17 window has remained close to the USGS long-term average of five to eight magnitude-5.5 or greater events per week, positioning six as the clearest market leader. Steady activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge segments has produced no major magnitude-7+ shocks or intense aftershock sequences that would push counts higher. Official USGS catalogs through the period show consistent daily rates without anomalous clustering or rapid-fire swarms, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical baseline patterns while allowing modest probability for seven events if final detections add one or two borderline cases before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$134,879End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity during the May 11–17 window has remained close to the USGS long-term average of five to eight magnitude-5.5 or greater events per week, positioning six as the clearest market leader. Steady activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge segments has produced no major magnitude-7+ shocks or intense aftershock sequences that would push counts higher. Official USGS catalogs through the period show consistent daily rates without anomalous clustering or rapid-fire swarms, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical baseline patterns while allowing modest probability for seven events if final detections add one or two borderline cases before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$134,879End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity during the May 11–17 window has remained close to the USGS long-term average of five to eight magnitude-5.5 or greater events per week, positioning six as the clearest market leader. Steady activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge segments has produced no major magnitude-7+ shocks or intense aftershock sequences that would push counts higher. Official USGS catalogs through the period show consistent daily rates without anomalous clustering or rapid-fire swarms, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical baseline patterns while allowing modest probability for seven events if final detections add one or two borderline cases before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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