Global tectonic activity along major subduction zones and transform faults continues to drive the market's concentration around 6–7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher for the May 11–17 window. USGS monitoring shows steady background rates consistent with historical weekly averages of roughly six to eight events worldwide, primarily from the Pacific Ring of Fire, with no large aftershock sequences or unusual clusters reported in the past week. Official catalogs indicate moderate daily activity, including several 5.0–5.9 events that cross the 5.5 threshold, but no significant deviations from baseline that would push totals higher. Updated model runs and real-time seismic networks confirm no imminent spikes, keeping trader consensus aligned with typical plate-boundary behavior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 75.0%
8 2.0%
5 1.0%
4 <1%
$134,878 Vol.
$134,878 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
75%
7
39%
8
8%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
6 75.0%
8 2.0%
5 1.0%
4 <1%
$134,878 Vol.
$134,878 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
75%
7
39%
8
8%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global tectonic activity along major subduction zones and transform faults continues to drive the market's concentration around 6–7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher for the May 11–17 window. USGS monitoring shows steady background rates consistent with historical weekly averages of roughly six to eight events worldwide, primarily from the Pacific Ring of Fire, with no large aftershock sequences or unusual clusters reported in the past week. Official catalogs indicate moderate daily activity, including several 5.0–5.9 events that cross the 5.5 threshold, but no significant deviations from baseline that would push totals higher. Updated model runs and real-time seismic networks confirm no imminent spikes, keeping trader consensus aligned with typical plate-boundary behavior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions