**Hawkish monetary policy stance amid persistently elevated inflation is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for one dissent at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% following the September 25bp hike and the median SEP projection now at 4.1% for year-end 2026, markets price an 83% chance of another increase at the December gathering. Core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings above target, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, have reduced the scope for dovish pushback while limiting extreme hawkish deviations. This environment supports the 51.2% implied probability of exactly one dissent—most likely a dovish vote against further tightening—over zero dissents at 25.5%, as incoming data on CPI, payrolls, and PCE through November could either solidify consensus or introduce modest disagreement. The new chair’s emphasis on data-dependent decisions and reduced forward guidance adds uncertainty around the final vote tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
1 44.8%
0 26%
2 11.4%
3 8%
$17,927 Vol.
$17,927 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
0
26%
1
45%
2
11%
3
8%
4+
1%
1 44.8%
0 26%
2 11.4%
3 8%
$17,927 Vol.
$17,927 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
0
$8,442 Vol.
26%
1
$2,096 Vol.
45%
2
$1,030 Vol.
11%
3
$1,538 Vol.
8%
4+
$4,822 Vol.
1%
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Hawkish monetary policy stance amid persistently elevated inflation is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for one dissent at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% following the September 25bp hike and the median SEP projection now at 4.1% for year-end 2026, markets price an 83% chance of another increase at the December gathering. Core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings above target, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, have reduced the scope for dovish pushback while limiting extreme hawkish deviations. This environment supports the 51.2% implied probability of exactly one dissent—most likely a dovish vote against further tightening—over zero dissents at 25.5%, as incoming data on CPI, payrolls, and PCE through November could either solidify consensus or introduce modest disagreement. The new chair’s emphasis on data-dependent decisions and reduced forward guidance adds uncertainty around the final vote tally.
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM ET
Volume
$17,927End Date
Dec 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Hawkish monetary policy stance amid persistently elevated inflation is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for one dissent at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% following the September 25bp hike and the median SEP projection now at 4.1% for year-end 2026, markets price an 83% chance of another increase at the December gathering. Core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings above target, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, have reduced the scope for dovish pushback while limiting extreme hawkish deviations. This environment supports the 51.2% implied probability of exactly one dissent—most likely a dovish vote against further tightening—over zero dissents at 25.5%, as incoming data on CPI, payrolls, and PCE through November could either solidify consensus or introduce modest disagreement. The new chair’s emphasis on data-dependent decisions and reduced forward guidance adds uncertainty around the final vote tally.
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$17,927End Date
Dec 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Hawkish monetary policy stance amid persistently elevated inflation is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for one dissent at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% following the September 25bp hike and the median SEP projection now at 4.1% for year-end 2026, markets price an 83% chance of another increase at the December gathering. Core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings above target, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, have reduced the scope for dovish pushback while limiting extreme hawkish deviations. This environment supports the 51.2% implied probability of exactly one dissent—most likely a dovish vote against further tightening—over zero dissents at 25.5%, as incoming data on CPI, payrolls, and PCE through November could either solidify consensus or introduce modest disagreement. The new chair’s emphasis on data-dependent decisions and reduced forward guidance adds uncertainty around the final vote tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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