Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 300,000–400,000 ICE removals range at 47.5% for calendar year 2026, reflecting a steady but sub-mass pace of roughly 30,000–35,000 monthly deportations through April, annualized to around 360,000–420,000 amid logistical hurdles like court backlogs exceeding 3 million cases, limited detention beds despite new facilities, and sanctuary city resistance. First-quarter data showed January peaks near 35,000 removals followed by slight declines, with cumulative formal removals since January 2025 totaling 477,000 by early April. Recent early May developments—including DHS announcements of ICE deployments to over 40 states, border czar vows for accelerated operations, and rising voluntary departures—signal potential ramp-up, though traders discount rhetoric against historical enforcement constraints and funding debates, keeping higher bins like 500,000+ below 8%.