Recent Iranian attacks on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile and projectile strikes on tankers in early July 2026, have triggered U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets and renewed sanctions pressure. These actions follow violations of prior interim understandings, with Iran enforcing preferred transit routes through warnings and force rather than offering binding commitments to halt operations. U.S. officials have publicly called for Iranian assurances on shipping safety as a precondition for further talks, yet Tehran has shown no signs of issuing such pledges amid heightened naval activity and leverage-seeking in negotiations. This pattern of escalation, absent any verified diplomatic overtures or official statements indicating restraint by the immediate Sunday deadline, underpins trader expectations that no commitment will materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
NEW
$29,799 Vol.
NEW
$29,799 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
NEW
$29,799 Vol.
NEW
$29,799 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.Recent Iranian attacks on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile and projectile strikes on tankers in early July 2026, have triggered U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets and renewed sanctions pressure. These actions follow violations of prior interim understandings, with Iran enforcing preferred transit routes through warnings and force rather than offering binding commitments to halt operations. U.S. officials have publicly called for Iranian assurances on shipping safety as a precondition for further talks, yet Tehran has shown no signs of issuing such pledges amid heightened naval activity and leverage-seeking in negotiations. This pattern of escalation, absent any verified diplomatic overtures or official statements indicating restraint by the immediate Sunday deadline, underpins trader expectations that no commitment will materialize.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$29,799End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.Recent Iranian attacks on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile and projectile strikes on tankers in early July 2026, have triggered U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets and renewed sanctions pressure. These actions follow violations of prior interim understandings, with Iran enforcing preferred transit routes through warnings and force rather than offering binding commitments to halt operations. U.S. officials have publicly called for Iranian assurances on shipping safety as a precondition for further talks, yet Tehran has shown no signs of issuing such pledges amid heightened naval activity and leverage-seeking in negotiations. This pattern of escalation, absent any verified diplomatic overtures or official statements indicating restraint by the immediate Sunday deadline, underpins trader expectations that no commitment will materialize.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
Volume
$29,799End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Iranian attacks on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile and projectile strikes on tankers in early July 2026, have triggered U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets and renewed sanctions pressure. These actions follow violations of prior interim understandings, with Iran enforcing preferred transit routes through warnings and force rather than offering binding commitments to halt operations. U.S. officials have publicly called for Iranian assurances on shipping safety as a precondition for further talks, yet Tehran has shown no signs of issuing such pledges amid heightened naval activity and leverage-seeking in negotiations. This pattern of escalation, absent any verified diplomatic overtures or official statements indicating restraint by the immediate Sunday deadline, underpins trader expectations that no commitment will materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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