Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has seen repeated short-notice closures and reopenings from February through July 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open following a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and renewed regional military activity, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed full service to Ben Gurion. Official assessments indicate operations will persist with only brief interruptions during alerts, keeping trader-implied probabilities for near-term full closure low amid ongoing but contained escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$27,254,846 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
August 31
5%
$27,254,846 Vol.
August 31
$1,222,965 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has seen repeated short-notice closures and reopenings from February through July 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open following a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and renewed regional military activity, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed full service to Ben Gurion. Official assessments indicate operations will persist with only brief interruptions during alerts, keeping trader-implied probabilities for near-term full closure low amid ongoing but contained escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,254,846End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has seen repeated short-notice closures and reopenings from February through July 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open following a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and renewed regional military activity, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed full service to Ben Gurion. Official assessments indicate operations will persist with only brief interruptions during alerts, keeping trader-implied probabilities for near-term full closure low amid ongoing but contained escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,254,846End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has seen repeated short-notice closures and reopenings from February through July 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open following a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and renewed regional military activity, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed full service to Ben Gurion. Official assessments indicate operations will persist with only brief interruptions during alerts, keeping trader-implied probabilities for near-term full closure low amid ongoing but contained escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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