Official meteorological forecasts from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 10°C for Ankara on September 9 under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical September radiative cooling overnight. High pressure and dew points around 0–7°C support efficient surface cooling after sunset, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for a 10°C low. Historical September minima average near 12°C, but recent model runs and early-morning observations have converged tightly on this threshold. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger winds, or a shift in air mass that reduces nocturnal cooling by several degrees, though no such developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 9?
10°C 99.4%
8°C 1.0%
9°C 1.0%
7°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
99%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
10°C 99.4%
8°C 1.0%
9°C 1.0%
7°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
7°C or below
$50 Vol.
1%
8°C
$45 Vol.
1%
9°C
$45 Vol.
1%
10°C
$460 Vol.
99%
11°C
$479 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$164 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$269 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological forecasts from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 10°C for Ankara on September 9 under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical September radiative cooling overnight. High pressure and dew points around 0–7°C support efficient surface cooling after sunset, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for a 10°C low. Historical September minima average near 12°C, but recent model runs and early-morning observations have converged tightly on this threshold. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger winds, or a shift in air mass that reduces nocturnal cooling by several degrees, though no such developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,708End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological forecasts from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 10°C for Ankara on September 9 under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical September radiative cooling overnight. High pressure and dew points around 0–7°C support efficient surface cooling after sunset, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for a 10°C low. Historical September minima average near 12°C, but recent model runs and early-morning observations have converged tightly on this threshold. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger winds, or a shift in air mass that reduces nocturnal cooling by several degrees, though no such developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,708End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official meteorological forecasts from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 10°C for Ankara on September 9 under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical September radiative cooling overnight. High pressure and dew points around 0–7°C support efficient surface cooling after sunset, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for a 10°C low. Historical September minima average near 12°C, but recent model runs and early-morning observations have converged tightly on this threshold. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, stronger winds, or a shift in air mass that reduces nocturnal cooling by several degrees, though no such developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions