**Latest forecast models and observational data indicate a minimum temperature near 19–20°C for Chongqing on September 11, 2026, underpinning the dominant market-implied probability for 19°C.** Persistent high humidity (70–90%), light winds under 3 m/s, and extensive cloud cover have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with typical early-fall subtropical conditions in the region where September minima average around 21–22°C but can dip lower under stable high-pressure influence. Multiple sources, including Yr.no and PredictWind, project overnight lows of 20–23°C with daytime highs reaching 26–29°C, while historical patterns show gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official monitoring stations and recent model runs favoring the lower end of the range, with limited volatility expected absent major frontal passage. Official resolution will depend on the precise station reading and any late-day adjustments in data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 11?
19°C 99%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$1,040 Vol.
$1,040 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
19°C 99%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$1,040 Vol.
$1,040 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
$51 Vol.
No
17°C
$50 Vol.
No
18°C
$169 Vol.
No
19°C
$241 Vol.
Yes
20°C
$233 Vol.
No
21°C
$114 Vol.
No
22°C
$40 Vol.
No
23°C
$35 Vol.
No
24°C
$35 Vol.
No
25°C
$35 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$35 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast models and observational data indicate a minimum temperature near 19–20°C for Chongqing on September 11, 2026, underpinning the dominant market-implied probability for 19°C.**
Persistent high humidity (70–90%), light winds under 3 m/s, and extensive cloud cover have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with typical early-fall subtropical conditions in the region where September minima average around 21–22°C but can dip lower under stable high-pressure influence. Multiple sources, including Yr.no and PredictWind, project overnight lows of 20–23°C with daytime highs reaching 26–29°C, while historical patterns show gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official monitoring stations and recent model runs favoring the lower end of the range, with limited volatility expected absent major frontal passage. Official resolution will depend on the precise station reading and any late-day adjustments in data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,040End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast models and observational data indicate a minimum temperature near 19–20°C for Chongqing on September 11, 2026, underpinning the dominant market-implied probability for 19°C.**
Persistent high humidity (70–90%), light winds under 3 m/s, and extensive cloud cover have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with typical early-fall subtropical conditions in the region where September minima average around 21–22°C but can dip lower under stable high-pressure influence. Multiple sources, including Yr.no and PredictWind, project overnight lows of 20–23°C with daytime highs reaching 26–29°C, while historical patterns show gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official monitoring stations and recent model runs favoring the lower end of the range, with limited volatility expected absent major frontal passage. Official resolution will depend on the precise station reading and any late-day adjustments in data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,040End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Latest forecast models and observational data indicate a minimum temperature near 19–20°C for Chongqing on September 11, 2026, underpinning the dominant market-implied probability for 19°C.** Persistent high humidity (70–90%), light winds under 3 m/s, and extensive cloud cover have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with typical early-fall subtropical conditions in the region where September minima average around 21–22°C but can dip lower under stable high-pressure influence. Multiple sources, including Yr.no and PredictWind, project overnight lows of 20–23°C with daytime highs reaching 26–29°C, while historical patterns show gradual seasonal decline from summer peaks. Traders appear to weight the consensus from official monitoring stations and recent model runs favoring the lower end of the range, with limited volatility expected absent major frontal passage. Official resolution will depend on the precise station reading and any late-day adjustments in data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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