Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu around 20–22°C on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining moderate humidity levels near 80–90%. Light northeasterly winds and the urban heat island effect further stabilize overnight lows above typical September baselines of 18–19°C. With leading market outcomes split near 50% between cooler and warmer extremes, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range predictions, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture could alter the daily minimum by 2–4°C. New high-resolution model updates expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 19?
16°C or below 100%
26°C or higher 74%
22°C 53%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
100%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C
50%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
74%
16°C or below 100%
26°C or higher 74%
22°C 53%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$289 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu around 20–22°C on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining moderate humidity levels near 80–90%. Light northeasterly winds and the urban heat island effect further stabilize overnight lows above typical September baselines of 18–19°C. With leading market outcomes split near 50% between cooler and warmer extremes, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range predictions, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture could alter the daily minimum by 2–4°C. New high-resolution model updates expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu around 20–22°C on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining moderate humidity levels near 80–90%. Light northeasterly winds and the urban heat island effect further stabilize overnight lows above typical September baselines of 18–19°C. With leading market outcomes split near 50% between cooler and warmer extremes, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range predictions, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture could alter the daily minimum by 2–4°C. New high-resolution model updates expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu around 20–22°C on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining moderate humidity levels near 80–90%. Light northeasterly winds and the urban heat island effect further stabilize overnight lows above typical September baselines of 18–19°C. With leading market outcomes split near 50% between cooler and warmer extremes, traders weigh ensemble spread in short-range predictions, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture could alter the daily minimum by 2–4°C. New high-resolution model updates expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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