**Latest numerical weather prediction runs for Chengdu point to an overnight low near 19°C on September 17 under persistent cloud cover and scattered rain, consistent with the basin's humid subtropical climate and light northeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling.** High humidity (often above 90%) and the Qinling Mountains' sheltering effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply, aligning with September climatology of roughly 18°C average lows. Model consensus shows modest spread around 18–20°C, with slight variations in timing of showers or breaks in cloud cover able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Trader odds cluster near these values because official minimum temperatures (typically from Shuangliu or central stations) resolve precisely on observed data, and fresh model updates or satellite imagery could quickly adjust implied probabilities before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 17?
15°C or below 63%
25°C or higher 63%
22°C 40%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
63%
16°C
16%
17°C
38%
18°C
26%
19°C
33%
20°C
25%
21°C
21%
22°C
40%
23°C
39%
24°C
14%
25°C or higher
63%
15°C or below 63%
25°C or higher 63%
22°C 40%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$39 Vol.
63%
16°C
$0 Vol.
16%
17°C
$0 Vol.
38%
18°C
$71 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
33%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction runs for Chengdu point to an overnight low near 19°C on September 17 under persistent cloud cover and scattered rain, consistent with the basin's humid subtropical climate and light northeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling.** High humidity (often above 90%) and the Qinling Mountains' sheltering effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply, aligning with September climatology of roughly 18°C average lows. Model consensus shows modest spread around 18–20°C, with slight variations in timing of showers or breaks in cloud cover able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Trader odds cluster near these values because official minimum temperatures (typically from Shuangliu or central stations) resolve precisely on observed data, and fresh model updates or satellite imagery could quickly adjust implied probabilities before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$111End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction runs for Chengdu point to an overnight low near 19°C on September 17 under persistent cloud cover and scattered rain, consistent with the basin's humid subtropical climate and light northeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling.** High humidity (often above 90%) and the Qinling Mountains' sheltering effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply, aligning with September climatology of roughly 18°C average lows. Model consensus shows modest spread around 18–20°C, with slight variations in timing of showers or breaks in cloud cover able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Trader odds cluster near these values because official minimum temperatures (typically from Shuangliu or central stations) resolve precisely on observed data, and fresh model updates or satellite imagery could quickly adjust implied probabilities before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$111End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction runs for Chengdu point to an overnight low near 19°C on September 17 under persistent cloud cover and scattered rain, consistent with the basin's humid subtropical climate and light northeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling.** High humidity (often above 90%) and the Qinling Mountains' sheltering effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply, aligning with September climatology of roughly 18°C average lows. Model consensus shows modest spread around 18–20°C, with slight variations in timing of showers or breaks in cloud cover able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Trader odds cluster near these values because official minimum temperatures (typically from Shuangliu or central stations) resolve precisely on observed data, and fresh model updates or satellite imagery could quickly adjust implied probabilities before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions