Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a lowest temperature near 21–23°C in Chongqing on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and scattered rainfall that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This autumn transition pattern, with daytime highs projected around 26–29°C, aligns closely with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 53% implied probability. Traders appear to discount sharper drops below 17°C or spikes above 27°C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or clearing skies in the latest runs, though model spread on exact overnight minimums under variable precipitation keeps secondary outcomes like 27°C+ at 35.5% viable if drier conditions develop. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 19?
27°C or higher 60%
17°C or below 53%
21°C 53%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
17°C or below
53%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C
53%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C
39%
27°C or higher
60%
27°C or higher 60%
17°C or below 53%
21°C 53%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
53%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$89 Vol.
53%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a lowest temperature near 21–23°C in Chongqing on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and scattered rainfall that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This autumn transition pattern, with daytime highs projected around 26–29°C, aligns closely with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 53% implied probability. Traders appear to discount sharper drops below 17°C or spikes above 27°C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or clearing skies in the latest runs, though model spread on exact overnight minimums under variable precipitation keeps secondary outcomes like 27°C+ at 35.5% viable if drier conditions develop. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$89End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a lowest temperature near 21–23°C in Chongqing on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and scattered rainfall that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This autumn transition pattern, with daytime highs projected around 26–29°C, aligns closely with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 53% implied probability. Traders appear to discount sharper drops below 17°C or spikes above 27°C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or clearing skies in the latest runs, though model spread on exact overnight minimums under variable precipitation keeps secondary outcomes like 27°C+ at 35.5% viable if drier conditions develop. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$89End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a lowest temperature near 21–23°C in Chongqing on September 19, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and scattered rainfall that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This autumn transition pattern, with daytime highs projected around 26–29°C, aligns closely with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 53% implied probability. Traders appear to discount sharper drops below 17°C or spikes above 27°C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or clearing skies in the latest runs, though model spread on exact overnight minimums under variable precipitation keeps secondary outcomes like 27°C+ at 35.5% viable if drier conditions develop. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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