Recent official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory and consensus numerical models show persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and light northeasterly winds holding the minimum near 19°C through the night of September 17. These conditions limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity and suppressing any stronger temperature drop, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for 19°C. Historical September lows in the region average around 21–22°C, but the current synoptic pattern of repeated rain episodes has kept readings 2–3°C cooler. Updated model runs or clearing skies before dawn remain the main variables that could shift the realized minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 17?
19°C 96%
17°C 56%
18°C 30%
16°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
56%
18°C
30%
19°C
96%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 96%
17°C 56%
18°C 30%
16°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$41 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$58 Vol.
56%
18°C
$1 Vol.
30%
19°C
$130 Vol.
96%
20°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$628 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory and consensus numerical models show persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and light northeasterly winds holding the minimum near 19°C through the night of September 17. These conditions limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity and suppressing any stronger temperature drop, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for 19°C. Historical September lows in the region average around 21–22°C, but the current synoptic pattern of repeated rain episodes has kept readings 2–3°C cooler. Updated model runs or clearing skies before dawn remain the main variables that could shift the realized minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,105End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory and consensus numerical models show persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and light northeasterly winds holding the minimum near 19°C through the night of September 17. These conditions limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity and suppressing any stronger temperature drop, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for 19°C. Historical September lows in the region average around 21–22°C, but the current synoptic pattern of repeated rain episodes has kept readings 2–3°C cooler. Updated model runs or clearing skies before dawn remain the main variables that could shift the realized minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,105End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory and consensus numerical models show persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and light northeasterly winds holding the minimum near 19°C through the night of September 17. These conditions limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity and suppressing any stronger temperature drop, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for 19°C. Historical September lows in the region average around 21–22°C, but the current synoptic pattern of repeated rain episodes has kept readings 2–3°C cooler. Updated model runs or clearing skies before dawn remain the main variables that could shift the realized minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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