Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Guangzhou's September 19 overnight low will likely settle in the mid-20s °C range under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and scattered showers, consistent with climatological averages near 23.9 °C and limited influence from the East Asian monsoon or subtropical high. The near-even split between sub-20 °C and 30 °C+ outcomes reflects trader assessment of residual uncertainty in short-range guidance, where modest shifts in cloud cover, rainfall timing, or a brief northerly wind surge could enhance radiative cooling or maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention. Historical extremes show such variability is possible but uncommon this early in the season without organized tropical systems or frontal passages. Updated NMC or CMA model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 19?
20°C or below 99%
30°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
99%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
40%
26°C
40%
27°C
21%
28°C
20%
29°C
39%
30°C or higher
98%
20°C or below 99%
30°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
40%
27°C
$0 Vol.
21%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Guangzhou's September 19 overnight low will likely settle in the mid-20s °C range under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and scattered showers, consistent with climatological averages near 23.9 °C and limited influence from the East Asian monsoon or subtropical high. The near-even split between sub-20 °C and 30 °C+ outcomes reflects trader assessment of residual uncertainty in short-range guidance, where modest shifts in cloud cover, rainfall timing, or a brief northerly wind surge could enhance radiative cooling or maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention. Historical extremes show such variability is possible but uncommon this early in the season without organized tropical systems or frontal passages. Updated NMC or CMA model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Guangzhou's September 19 overnight low will likely settle in the mid-20s °C range under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and scattered showers, consistent with climatological averages near 23.9 °C and limited influence from the East Asian monsoon or subtropical high. The near-even split between sub-20 °C and 30 °C+ outcomes reflects trader assessment of residual uncertainty in short-range guidance, where modest shifts in cloud cover, rainfall timing, or a brief northerly wind surge could enhance radiative cooling or maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention. Historical extremes show such variability is possible but uncommon this early in the season without organized tropical systems or frontal passages. Updated NMC or CMA model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Guangzhou's September 19 overnight low will likely settle in the mid-20s °C range under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and scattered showers, consistent with climatological averages near 23.9 °C and limited influence from the East Asian monsoon or subtropical high. The near-even split between sub-20 °C and 30 °C+ outcomes reflects trader assessment of residual uncertainty in short-range guidance, where modest shifts in cloud cover, rainfall timing, or a brief northerly wind surge could enhance radiative cooling or maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention. Historical extremes show such variability is possible but uncommon this early in the season without organized tropical systems or frontal passages. Updated NMC or CMA model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions