**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 17 low in Guangzhou near 25–27°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rain possible, consistent with the 1991–2020 average low of 24.1°C for the date.** Nighttime radiative cooling will be limited by high humidity (often 70–90%) and cloud cover typical of the late monsoon season, keeping the minimum well above cooler historical outliers like the 17.9°C record from 2012. Current conditions show no strong cold advection or clear-sky setup that would drive sharper drops, while daytime heating supports highs near 32–34°C. Trader-implied odds cluster around 25–26°C because ensemble spreads and minor variations in precipitation timing create genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model consensus rather than recent shifts. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 17?
20°C or below 78%
30°C or higher 78%
26°C 48%
27°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
20°C or below
78%
21°C
14%
22°C
38%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C
24%
26°C
32%
27°C
27%
28°C
15%
29°C
15%
30°C or higher
78%
20°C or below 78%
30°C or higher 78%
26°C 48%
27°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
78%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$74 Vol.
38%
23°C
$48 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$5 Vol.
24%
26°C
$36 Vol.
32%
27°C
$45 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 17 low in Guangzhou near 25–27°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rain possible, consistent with the 1991–2020 average low of 24.1°C for the date.**
Nighttime radiative cooling will be limited by high humidity (often 70–90%) and cloud cover typical of the late monsoon season, keeping the minimum well above cooler historical outliers like the 17.9°C record from 2012. Current conditions show no strong cold advection or clear-sky setup that would drive sharper drops, while daytime heating supports highs near 32–34°C. Trader-implied odds cluster around 25–26°C because ensemble spreads and minor variations in precipitation timing create genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model consensus rather than recent shifts. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$208End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 17 low in Guangzhou near 25–27°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rain possible, consistent with the 1991–2020 average low of 24.1°C for the date.**
Nighttime radiative cooling will be limited by high humidity (often 70–90%) and cloud cover typical of the late monsoon season, keeping the minimum well above cooler historical outliers like the 17.9°C record from 2012. Current conditions show no strong cold advection or clear-sky setup that would drive sharper drops, while daytime heating supports highs near 32–34°C. Trader-implied odds cluster around 25–26°C because ensemble spreads and minor variations in precipitation timing create genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model consensus rather than recent shifts. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$208End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 17 low in Guangzhou near 25–27°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rain possible, consistent with the 1991–2020 average low of 24.1°C for the date.** Nighttime radiative cooling will be limited by high humidity (often 70–90%) and cloud cover typical of the late monsoon season, keeping the minimum well above cooler historical outliers like the 17.9°C record from 2012. Current conditions show no strong cold advection or clear-sky setup that would drive sharper drops, while daytime heating supports highs near 32–34°C. Trader-implied odds cluster around 25–26°C because ensemble spreads and minor variations in precipitation timing create genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model consensus rather than recent shifts. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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