**Current forecasts for Istanbul point to a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 1, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** Multiple models and meteorological sources (including 30-day outlooks updated August 30) show daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to overnight lows of 19–21°C, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region but slightly above long-term averages due to persistent warm advection. Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight, modulated by low cloud cover (forecast near zero), moderate humidity, and weak winds that limit mixing. These factors favor minimums in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius rather than extremes. Recent late-August observations of similar patterns—with minimal frontal activity or moisture intrusion—support continuity into early September, keeping probabilities concentrated around 19–22°C outcomes. The near-even market weighting across 26°C+ (30.0%), 16°C or below (29.5%), and mid-20s values reflects residual forecast uncertainty two days out, including potential model spread in boundary-layer cooling or minor synoptic shifts. Historical analogs show September minima rarely deviate sharply without strong cold-air outbreaks, which are not indicated in current guidance. Traders appear to balance the baseline forecast with tail risks from measurement variability or unmodeled local effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 1?
16°C or below 60%
26°C or higher 60%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
16°C or below
60%
17°C
44%
18°C
50%
19°C
50%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
2%
24°C
50%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
60%
16°C or below 60%
26°C or higher 60%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
60%
17°C
$0 Vol.
44%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Istanbul point to a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 1, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** Multiple models and meteorological sources (including 30-day outlooks updated August 30) show daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to overnight lows of 19–21°C, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region but slightly above long-term averages due to persistent warm advection.
Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight, modulated by low cloud cover (forecast near zero), moderate humidity, and weak winds that limit mixing. These factors favor minimums in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius rather than extremes. Recent late-August observations of similar patterns—with minimal frontal activity or moisture intrusion—support continuity into early September, keeping probabilities concentrated around 19–22°C outcomes.
The near-even market weighting across 26°C+ (30.0%), 16°C or below (29.5%), and mid-20s values reflects residual forecast uncertainty two days out, including potential model spread in boundary-layer cooling or minor synoptic shifts. Historical analogs show September minima rarely deviate sharply without strong cold-air outbreaks, which are not indicated in current guidance. Traders appear to balance the baseline forecast with tail risks from measurement variability or unmodeled local effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Istanbul point to a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 1, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** Multiple models and meteorological sources (including 30-day outlooks updated August 30) show daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to overnight lows of 19–21°C, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region but slightly above long-term averages due to persistent warm advection.
Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight, modulated by low cloud cover (forecast near zero), moderate humidity, and weak winds that limit mixing. These factors favor minimums in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius rather than extremes. Recent late-August observations of similar patterns—with minimal frontal activity or moisture intrusion—support continuity into early September, keeping probabilities concentrated around 19–22°C outcomes.
The near-even market weighting across 26°C+ (30.0%), 16°C or below (29.5%), and mid-20s values reflects residual forecast uncertainty two days out, including potential model spread in boundary-layer cooling or minor synoptic shifts. Historical analogs show September minima rarely deviate sharply without strong cold-air outbreaks, which are not indicated in current guidance. Traders appear to balance the baseline forecast with tail risks from measurement variability or unmodeled local effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts for Istanbul point to a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 1, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** Multiple models and meteorological sources (including 30-day outlooks updated August 30) show daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to overnight lows of 19–21°C, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region but slightly above long-term averages due to persistent warm advection. Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight, modulated by low cloud cover (forecast near zero), moderate humidity, and weak winds that limit mixing. These factors favor minimums in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius rather than extremes. Recent late-August observations of similar patterns—with minimal frontal activity or moisture intrusion—support continuity into early September, keeping probabilities concentrated around 19–22°C outcomes. The near-even market weighting across 26°C+ (30.0%), 16°C or below (29.5%), and mid-20s values reflects residual forecast uncertainty two days out, including potential model spread in boundary-layer cooling or minor synoptic shifts. Historical analogs show September minima rarely deviate sharply without strong cold-air outbreaks, which are not indicated in current guidance. Traders appear to balance the baseline forecast with tail risks from measurement variability or unmodeled local effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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