Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show Istanbul under building high pressure with northeasterly flow, producing mostly sunny conditions and daytime highs of 28–30°C on August 31. Overnight radiative cooling under clear skies supports minimum temperatures of 19–21°C, consistent with seasonal late-August baselines near 20°C after a slightly cooler spell earlier in the week. Trader positioning favoring 17°C or below at 45% implied probability likely reflects awareness of model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island variability, while the clustering around 20–23°C outcomes captures the central forecast range. New 00z and 12z runs over the next 48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 31?
17°C or below 89%
27°C or higher 55%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
89%
18°C
50%
19°C
50%
20°C
26%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
2%
25°C
8%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
55%
17°C or below 89%
27°C or higher 55%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$0 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show Istanbul under building high pressure with northeasterly flow, producing mostly sunny conditions and daytime highs of 28–30°C on August 31. Overnight radiative cooling under clear skies supports minimum temperatures of 19–21°C, consistent with seasonal late-August baselines near 20°C after a slightly cooler spell earlier in the week. Trader positioning favoring 17°C or below at 45% implied probability likely reflects awareness of model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island variability, while the clustering around 20–23°C outcomes captures the central forecast range. New 00z and 12z runs over the next 48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show Istanbul under building high pressure with northeasterly flow, producing mostly sunny conditions and daytime highs of 28–30°C on August 31. Overnight radiative cooling under clear skies supports minimum temperatures of 19–21°C, consistent with seasonal late-August baselines near 20°C after a slightly cooler spell earlier in the week. Trader positioning favoring 17°C or below at 45% implied probability likely reflects awareness of model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island variability, while the clustering around 20–23°C outcomes captures the central forecast range. New 00z and 12z runs over the next 48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show Istanbul under building high pressure with northeasterly flow, producing mostly sunny conditions and daytime highs of 28–30°C on August 31. Overnight radiative cooling under clear skies supports minimum temperatures of 19–21°C, consistent with seasonal late-August baselines near 20°C after a slightly cooler spell earlier in the week. Trader positioning favoring 17°C or below at 45% implied probability likely reflects awareness of model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island variability, while the clustering around 20–23°C outcomes captures the central forecast range. New 00z and 12z runs over the next 48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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