Recent forecast models from the Met Office and European sources indicate a stable high-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean will bring clear to partly cloudy conditions to Istanbul on September 19, supporting overnight radiative cooling that bottoms out near 18°C under light northeasterly flow. This places the expected daily minimum well inside the central range, where modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud timing, and urban heat retention can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The near-even split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes in trader positioning reflects ongoing model spread on whether a transient short-wave trough or stronger subsidence will dominate, with new 00Z and 12Z runs plus local station observations over the next 48 hours likely to tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 19?
13°C or below 100%
23°C or higher 98%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
13°C or below
100%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
40%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C or higher
98%
13°C or below 100%
23°C or higher 98%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Met Office and European sources indicate a stable high-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean will bring clear to partly cloudy conditions to Istanbul on September 19, supporting overnight radiative cooling that bottoms out near 18°C under light northeasterly flow. This places the expected daily minimum well inside the central range, where modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud timing, and urban heat retention can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The near-even split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes in trader positioning reflects ongoing model spread on whether a transient short-wave trough or stronger subsidence will dominate, with new 00Z and 12Z runs plus local station observations over the next 48 hours likely to tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Met Office and European sources indicate a stable high-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean will bring clear to partly cloudy conditions to Istanbul on September 19, supporting overnight radiative cooling that bottoms out near 18°C under light northeasterly flow. This places the expected daily minimum well inside the central range, where modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud timing, and urban heat retention can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The near-even split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes in trader positioning reflects ongoing model spread on whether a transient short-wave trough or stronger subsidence will dominate, with new 00Z and 12Z runs plus local station observations over the next 48 hours likely to tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from the Met Office and European sources indicate a stable high-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean will bring clear to partly cloudy conditions to Istanbul on September 19, supporting overnight radiative cooling that bottoms out near 18°C under light northeasterly flow. This places the expected daily minimum well inside the central range, where modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud timing, and urban heat retention can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The near-even split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes in trader positioning reflects ongoing model spread on whether a transient short-wave trough or stronger subsidence will dominate, with new 00Z and 12Z runs plus local station observations over the next 48 hours likely to tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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