Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on September 17 will likely fall between 15–18°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the Black Sea and intermittent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Scattered showers and elevated humidity may further moderate the low, while any clearing could allow dips closer to 15°C. This uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and exact timing of precipitation explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, with specific bins clustered around 17–20°C reflecting ensemble consensus. Official observations from Istanbul stations will resolve the market within hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 17?
15°C or below 89%
25°C or higher 89%
16°C 40%
21°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
89%
16°C
40%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
19%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C or higher
89%
15°C or below 89%
25°C or higher 89%
16°C 40%
21°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on September 17 will likely fall between 15–18°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the Black Sea and intermittent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Scattered showers and elevated humidity may further moderate the low, while any clearing could allow dips closer to 15°C. This uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and exact timing of precipitation explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, with specific bins clustered around 17–20°C reflecting ensemble consensus. Official observations from Istanbul stations will resolve the market within hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on September 17 will likely fall between 15–18°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the Black Sea and intermittent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Scattered showers and elevated humidity may further moderate the low, while any clearing could allow dips closer to 15°C. This uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and exact timing of precipitation explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, with specific bins clustered around 17–20°C reflecting ensemble consensus. Official observations from Istanbul stations will resolve the market within hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on September 17 will likely fall between 15–18°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air from the Black Sea and intermittent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Scattered showers and elevated humidity may further moderate the low, while any clearing could allow dips closer to 15°C. This uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and exact timing of precipitation explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, with specific bins clustered around 17–20°C reflecting ensemble consensus. Official observations from Istanbul stations will resolve the market within hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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