**Incoming northerly winds and persistent rain from a frontal system are the main drivers cooling Istanbul ahead of September 23.** Official guidance and ensemble models (including GFS and ICON) show daytime highs near 17–18°C with widespread precipitation and moderate northerly flow, leading to overnight minimums most likely in the 11–15°C range. This setup creates tight market-implied odds between warmer (18°C+) and colder (8°C or below) buckets, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift that could alter the daily low. Historical September norms for the city hover around 17°C daytime and 12–14°C nighttime, providing context for the current cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and local meteorological service briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
18°C or higher 88%
8°C or below 86%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
86%
9°C
38%
10°C
39%
11°C
22%
12°C
22%
13°C
24%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C or higher
88%
18°C or higher 88%
8°C or below 86%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
$100 Vol.
86%
9°C
$100 Vol.
38%
10°C
$40 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Incoming northerly winds and persistent rain from a frontal system are the main drivers cooling Istanbul ahead of September 23.**
Official guidance and ensemble models (including GFS and ICON) show daytime highs near 17–18°C with widespread precipitation and moderate northerly flow, leading to overnight minimums most likely in the 11–15°C range. This setup creates tight market-implied odds between warmer (18°C+) and colder (8°C or below) buckets, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift that could alter the daily low. Historical September norms for the city hover around 17°C daytime and 12–14°C nighttime, providing context for the current cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and local meteorological service briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$240End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Incoming northerly winds and persistent rain from a frontal system are the main drivers cooling Istanbul ahead of September 23.**
Official guidance and ensemble models (including GFS and ICON) show daytime highs near 17–18°C with widespread precipitation and moderate northerly flow, leading to overnight minimums most likely in the 11–15°C range. This setup creates tight market-implied odds between warmer (18°C+) and colder (8°C or below) buckets, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift that could alter the daily low. Historical September norms for the city hover around 17°C daytime and 12–14°C nighttime, providing context for the current cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and local meteorological service briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$240End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incoming northerly winds and persistent rain from a frontal system are the main drivers cooling Istanbul ahead of September 23.** Official guidance and ensemble models (including GFS and ICON) show daytime highs near 17–18°C with widespread precipitation and moderate northerly flow, leading to overnight minimums most likely in the 11–15°C range. This setup creates tight market-implied odds between warmer (18°C+) and colder (8°C or below) buckets, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing or wind shift that could alter the daily low. Historical September norms for the city hover around 17°C daytime and 12–14°C nighttime, providing context for the current cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and local meteorological service briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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