Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a cool northerly flow and widespread rain will cap Istanbul's daytime maximum near 17°C on September 23, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar heating while cold-air advection from higher latitudes lowers boundary-layer temperatures, consistent with GFS and ICON-EU guidance showing highs of 16–18°C amid 80–100% rain probability. This marks a sharp drop from the prior day's 21–26°C readings as a frontal system moves through. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus around 17°C highest, with modest probabilities for 16°C or 18°C reflecting minor model spread in exact timing of clearing. Final surface observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
17°C 62%
18°C 20%
16°C 14%
19°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
14%
17°C
62%
18°C
20%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 62%
18°C 20%
16°C 14%
19°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
12°C or below
$208 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$45 Vol.
2%
15°C
$170 Vol.
2%
16°C
$630 Vol.
14%
17°C
$832 Vol.
62%
18°C
$355 Vol.
20%
19°C
$98 Vol.
4%
20°C
$148 Vol.
2%
21°C
$232 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$99 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a cool northerly flow and widespread rain will cap Istanbul's daytime maximum near 17°C on September 23, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar heating while cold-air advection from higher latitudes lowers boundary-layer temperatures, consistent with GFS and ICON-EU guidance showing highs of 16–18°C amid 80–100% rain probability. This marks a sharp drop from the prior day's 21–26°C readings as a frontal system moves through. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus around 17°C highest, with modest probabilities for 16°C or 18°C reflecting minor model spread in exact timing of clearing. Final surface observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,926End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a cool northerly flow and widespread rain will cap Istanbul's daytime maximum near 17°C on September 23, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar heating while cold-air advection from higher latitudes lowers boundary-layer temperatures, consistent with GFS and ICON-EU guidance showing highs of 16–18°C amid 80–100% rain probability. This marks a sharp drop from the prior day's 21–26°C readings as a frontal system moves through. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus around 17°C highest, with modest probabilities for 16°C or 18°C reflecting minor model spread in exact timing of clearing. Final surface observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,926End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a cool northerly flow and widespread rain will cap Istanbul's daytime maximum near 17°C on September 23, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar heating while cold-air advection from higher latitudes lowers boundary-layer temperatures, consistent with GFS and ICON-EU guidance showing highs of 16–18°C amid 80–100% rain probability. This marks a sharp drop from the prior day's 21–26°C readings as a frontal system moves through. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus around 17°C highest, with modest probabilities for 16°C or 18°C reflecting minor model spread in exact timing of clearing. Final surface observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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