Recent forecasts indicate a cold front and associated thunderstorms will reach northern Italy on September 9–10, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Model consensus points to daytime highs near 19–21 °C and minimum temperatures clustered around 17–19 °C for Milan on the 10th, though localized heavy rain and variable wind patterns introduce spread in the exact low. This transitional pattern explains the near-even market-implied odds between outcomes above 22 °C and those at or below 12 °C, with the tightest probabilities centered on 15–18 °C reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing and precipitation intensity. Updated model runs from European and global ensembles, together with any revised National Meteorological Service guidance, will be the key near-term drivers of further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 10?
22°C or higher 86%
12°C or below 83%
16°C 27%
17°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
12°C or below
83%
13°C
21%
14°C
20%
15°C
24%
16°C
27%
17°C
25%
18°C
21%
19°C
20%
20°C
16%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
86%
22°C or higher 86%
12°C or below 83%
16°C 27%
17°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
12°C or below
$75 Vol.
83%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$17 Vol.
16%
21°C
$25 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$75 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate a cold front and associated thunderstorms will reach northern Italy on September 9–10, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Model consensus points to daytime highs near 19–21 °C and minimum temperatures clustered around 17–19 °C for Milan on the 10th, though localized heavy rain and variable wind patterns introduce spread in the exact low. This transitional pattern explains the near-even market-implied odds between outcomes above 22 °C and those at or below 12 °C, with the tightest probabilities centered on 15–18 °C reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing and precipitation intensity. Updated model runs from European and global ensembles, together with any revised National Meteorological Service guidance, will be the key near-term drivers of further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$192End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate a cold front and associated thunderstorms will reach northern Italy on September 9–10, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Model consensus points to daytime highs near 19–21 °C and minimum temperatures clustered around 17–19 °C for Milan on the 10th, though localized heavy rain and variable wind patterns introduce spread in the exact low. This transitional pattern explains the near-even market-implied odds between outcomes above 22 °C and those at or below 12 °C, with the tightest probabilities centered on 15–18 °C reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing and precipitation intensity. Updated model runs from European and global ensembles, together with any revised National Meteorological Service guidance, will be the key near-term drivers of further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$192End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts indicate a cold front and associated thunderstorms will reach northern Italy on September 9–10, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Model consensus points to daytime highs near 19–21 °C and minimum temperatures clustered around 17–19 °C for Milan on the 10th, though localized heavy rain and variable wind patterns introduce spread in the exact low. This transitional pattern explains the near-even market-implied odds between outcomes above 22 °C and those at or below 12 °C, with the tightest probabilities centered on 15–18 °C reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing and precipitation intensity. Updated model runs from European and global ensembles, together with any revised National Meteorological Service guidance, will be the key near-term drivers of further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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