**Forecast uncertainty after Wednesday’s storms is splitting trader sentiment on Toronto’s September 10 minimum temperature, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool night (≤9 °C at 41.5 %) versus a milder one (≥19 °C at 41 %).** Official Environment and Climate Change Canada guidance issued September 8 points to a clear night with a low near 10 °C following a mix of sun and cloud and only a 30 % shower chance during the day. Westerly winds shifting northwest at 10–15 km/h under clearing skies promote radiational cooling, while drier post-frontal air reduces cloud cover and humidity compared with the humid, stormy conditions on September 9. Other models and private forecasts range from the mid-teens Celsius (around 14–17 °C) to slightly lower values, reflecting typical short-range spread in boundary-layer temperature and wind forecasts this time of year. Historical September overnight lows in Toronto average near 12–14 °C, so the current setup sits close to normal but with elevated sensitivity to any lingering moisture or wind shifts that could limit cooling. Updated model runs and the final overnight observations will determine whether the minimum falls into the lower or upper part of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 10?
9°C or below 73%
10°C 39%
11°C 38%
12°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
9°C or below
73%
10°C
39%
11°C
38%
12°C
38%
13°C
38%
14°C
21%
15°C
24%
16°C
26%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C or higher
37%
9°C or below 73%
10°C 39%
11°C 38%
12°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
73%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty after Wednesday’s storms is splitting trader sentiment on Toronto’s September 10 minimum temperature, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool night (≤9 °C at 41.5 %) versus a milder one (≥19 °C at 41 %).**
Official Environment and Climate Change Canada guidance issued September 8 points to a clear night with a low near 10 °C following a mix of sun and cloud and only a 30 % shower chance during the day. Westerly winds shifting northwest at 10–15 km/h under clearing skies promote radiational cooling, while drier post-frontal air reduces cloud cover and humidity compared with the humid, stormy conditions on September 9. Other models and private forecasts range from the mid-teens Celsius (around 14–17 °C) to slightly lower values, reflecting typical short-range spread in boundary-layer temperature and wind forecasts this time of year. Historical September overnight lows in Toronto average near 12–14 °C, so the current setup sits close to normal but with elevated sensitivity to any lingering moisture or wind shifts that could limit cooling. Updated model runs and the final overnight observations will determine whether the minimum falls into the lower or upper part of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty after Wednesday’s storms is splitting trader sentiment on Toronto’s September 10 minimum temperature, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool night (≤9 °C at 41.5 %) versus a milder one (≥19 °C at 41 %).**
Official Environment and Climate Change Canada guidance issued September 8 points to a clear night with a low near 10 °C following a mix of sun and cloud and only a 30 % shower chance during the day. Westerly winds shifting northwest at 10–15 km/h under clearing skies promote radiational cooling, while drier post-frontal air reduces cloud cover and humidity compared with the humid, stormy conditions on September 9. Other models and private forecasts range from the mid-teens Celsius (around 14–17 °C) to slightly lower values, reflecting typical short-range spread in boundary-layer temperature and wind forecasts this time of year. Historical September overnight lows in Toronto average near 12–14 °C, so the current setup sits close to normal but with elevated sensitivity to any lingering moisture or wind shifts that could limit cooling. Updated model runs and the final overnight observations will determine whether the minimum falls into the lower or upper part of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty after Wednesday’s storms is splitting trader sentiment on Toronto’s September 10 minimum temperature, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool night (≤9 °C at 41.5 %) versus a milder one (≥19 °C at 41 %).** Official Environment and Climate Change Canada guidance issued September 8 points to a clear night with a low near 10 °C following a mix of sun and cloud and only a 30 % shower chance during the day. Westerly winds shifting northwest at 10–15 km/h under clearing skies promote radiational cooling, while drier post-frontal air reduces cloud cover and humidity compared with the humid, stormy conditions on September 9. Other models and private forecasts range from the mid-teens Celsius (around 14–17 °C) to slightly lower values, reflecting typical short-range spread in boundary-layer temperature and wind forecasts this time of year. Historical September overnight lows in Toronto average near 12–14 °C, so the current setup sits close to normal but with elevated sensitivity to any lingering moisture or wind shifts that could limit cooling. Updated model runs and the final overnight observations will determine whether the minimum falls into the lower or upper part of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions