Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs of ECMWF and GFS models indicate an intense heatwave over northern France, with daytime peaks of 36–38°C on August 13 sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup, driven by southerly flow and a strong high-pressure ridge, produces consensus overnight lows clustered near 20–22°C at Paris reference stations, directly supporting the market’s tight concentration on 21°C and 20°C outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points further compress the diurnal range, while model spread remains modest within a 1–2°C envelope. Final resolution hinges on official minimum readings, with any late-model shift in wind or cloud cover capable of nudging probabilities toward adjacent bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 13?
21°C 37%
20°C 34%
19°C 16%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
6%
19°C
16%
20°C
34%
21°C
37%
22°C
8%
23°C
7%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
21°C 37%
20°C 34%
19°C 16%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
$646 Vol.
6%
19°C
$470 Vol.
16%
20°C
$976 Vol.
34%
21°C
$758 Vol.
37%
22°C
$334 Vol.
8%
23°C
$219 Vol.
7%
24°C
$549 Vol.
1%
25°C
$626 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$400 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$151 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs of ECMWF and GFS models indicate an intense heatwave over northern France, with daytime peaks of 36–38°C on August 13 sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup, driven by southerly flow and a strong high-pressure ridge, produces consensus overnight lows clustered near 20–22°C at Paris reference stations, directly supporting the market’s tight concentration on 21°C and 20°C outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points further compress the diurnal range, while model spread remains modest within a 1–2°C envelope. Final resolution hinges on official minimum readings, with any late-model shift in wind or cloud cover capable of nudging probabilities toward adjacent bins.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,281End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs of ECMWF and GFS models indicate an intense heatwave over northern France, with daytime peaks of 36–38°C on August 13 sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup, driven by southerly flow and a strong high-pressure ridge, produces consensus overnight lows clustered near 20–22°C at Paris reference stations, directly supporting the market’s tight concentration on 21°C and 20°C outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points further compress the diurnal range, while model spread remains modest within a 1–2°C envelope. Final resolution hinges on official minimum readings, with any late-model shift in wind or cloud cover capable of nudging probabilities toward adjacent bins.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,281End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs of ECMWF and GFS models indicate an intense heatwave over northern France, with daytime peaks of 36–38°C on August 13 sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup, driven by southerly flow and a strong high-pressure ridge, produces consensus overnight lows clustered near 20–22°C at Paris reference stations, directly supporting the market’s tight concentration on 21°C and 20°C outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points further compress the diurnal range, while model spread remains modest within a 1–2°C envelope. Final resolution hinges on official minimum readings, with any late-model shift in wind or cloud cover capable of nudging probabilities toward adjacent bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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