Ensemble forecast spreads in numerical weather prediction models create the tight clustering around 13–14°C minima for São Paulo on August 24, with recent runs showing slight cooling relative to the 11–13°C August climatology yet notable uncertainty. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover modulating radiative cooling rates overnight, surface wind speeds that influence boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or residual frontal passage. Overcast conditions in some guidance limit drops below 13°C, while clearer scenarios allow greater cooling toward 12°C or lower; urban heat island effects and measurement site specifics further narrow resolution odds near these thresholds. New model updates expected within 24 hours will likely refine trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
19°C or higher 59%
18°C 36%
13°C 34%
14°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
2%
10°C
20%
11°C
19%
12°C
23%
13°C
34%
14°C
33%
15°C
28%
16°C
18%
17°C
3%
18°C
36%
19°C or higher
59%
19°C or higher 59%
18°C 36%
13°C 34%
14°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$65 Vol.
2%
10°C
$6 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
33%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$69 Vol.
3%
18°C
$55 Vol.
36%
19°C or higher
$60 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast spreads in numerical weather prediction models create the tight clustering around 13–14°C minima for São Paulo on August 24, with recent runs showing slight cooling relative to the 11–13°C August climatology yet notable uncertainty. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover modulating radiative cooling rates overnight, surface wind speeds that influence boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or residual frontal passage. Overcast conditions in some guidance limit drops below 13°C, while clearer scenarios allow greater cooling toward 12°C or lower; urban heat island effects and measurement site specifics further narrow resolution odds near these thresholds. New model updates expected within 24 hours will likely refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$255End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast spreads in numerical weather prediction models create the tight clustering around 13–14°C minima for São Paulo on August 24, with recent runs showing slight cooling relative to the 11–13°C August climatology yet notable uncertainty. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover modulating radiative cooling rates overnight, surface wind speeds that influence boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or residual frontal passage. Overcast conditions in some guidance limit drops below 13°C, while clearer scenarios allow greater cooling toward 12°C or lower; urban heat island effects and measurement site specifics further narrow resolution odds near these thresholds. New model updates expected within 24 hours will likely refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$255End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecast spreads in numerical weather prediction models create the tight clustering around 13–14°C minima for São Paulo on August 24, with recent runs showing slight cooling relative to the 11–13°C August climatology yet notable uncertainty. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover modulating radiative cooling rates overnight, surface wind speeds that influence boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or residual frontal passage. Overcast conditions in some guidance limit drops below 13°C, while clearer scenarios allow greater cooling toward 12°C or lower; urban heat island effects and measurement site specifics further narrow resolution odds near these thresholds. New model updates expected within 24 hours will likely refine trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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