Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 14 is locked at 26°C in trader consensus because official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C amid persistent overcast skies, moderate rain, and light easterly winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology for the region, where humid subtropical conditions and cloud cover keep diurnal ranges narrow around 26–29°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from this baseline, reinforcing the market-implied certainty. Only an unexpected clear-sky breakout allowing greater heat loss or a localized measurement anomaly at the official station could shift the recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$32,576 Vol.
$32,576 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$32,576 Vol.
$32,576 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$617 Vol.
No
21°C
$356 Vol.
No
22°C
$765 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,599 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,668 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,933 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,578 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$6,351 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,147 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,078 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$1,485 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 14 is locked at 26°C in trader consensus because official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C amid persistent overcast skies, moderate rain, and light easterly winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology for the region, where humid subtropical conditions and cloud cover keep diurnal ranges narrow around 26–29°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from this baseline, reinforcing the market-implied certainty. Only an unexpected clear-sky breakout allowing greater heat loss or a localized measurement anomaly at the official station could shift the recorded minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,576End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 14 is locked at 26°C in trader consensus because official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C amid persistent overcast skies, moderate rain, and light easterly winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology for the region, where humid subtropical conditions and cloud cover keep diurnal ranges narrow around 26–29°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from this baseline, reinforcing the market-implied certainty. Only an unexpected clear-sky breakout allowing greater heat loss or a localized measurement anomaly at the official station could shift the recorded minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,576End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 14 is locked at 26°C in trader consensus because official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C amid persistent overcast skies, moderate rain, and light easterly winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology for the region, where humid subtropical conditions and cloud cover keep diurnal ranges narrow around 26–29°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from this baseline, reinforcing the market-implied certainty. Only an unexpected clear-sky breakout allowing greater heat loss or a localized measurement anomaly at the official station could shift the recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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