Strong forecast consensus from meteorological models and observational data underpins the 96.5% implied probability for a 27°C overnight low in Shanghai on August 25. Late-summer conditions, including elevated humidity, light winds, and typical August cloud patterns, align with climatological baselines where minimum temperatures cluster around 25–27°C, with recent daily forecasts consistently projecting this threshold rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Official monitoring from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration supports stable atmospheric conditions without incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected overnight. Trader positioning reflects this model agreement and historical precedent, though an unexpected shift in steering patterns or localized precipitation could still alter the realized minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
27°C 97%
26°C 3%
25°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
$10,291 Vol.
$10,291 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
97%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 97%
26°C 3%
25°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
$10,291 Vol.
$10,291 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$269 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,500 Vol.
1%
26°C
$2,210 Vol.
3%
27°C
$2,616 Vol.
97%
28°C
$1,893 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$825 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong forecast consensus from meteorological models and observational data underpins the 96.5% implied probability for a 27°C overnight low in Shanghai on August 25. Late-summer conditions, including elevated humidity, light winds, and typical August cloud patterns, align with climatological baselines where minimum temperatures cluster around 25–27°C, with recent daily forecasts consistently projecting this threshold rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Official monitoring from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration supports stable atmospheric conditions without incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected overnight. Trader positioning reflects this model agreement and historical precedent, though an unexpected shift in steering patterns or localized precipitation could still alter the realized minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$10,291End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong forecast consensus from meteorological models and observational data underpins the 96.5% implied probability for a 27°C overnight low in Shanghai on August 25. Late-summer conditions, including elevated humidity, light winds, and typical August cloud patterns, align with climatological baselines where minimum temperatures cluster around 25–27°C, with recent daily forecasts consistently projecting this threshold rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Official monitoring from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration supports stable atmospheric conditions without incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected overnight. Trader positioning reflects this model agreement and historical precedent, though an unexpected shift in steering patterns or localized precipitation could still alter the realized minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,291End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong forecast consensus from meteorological models and observational data underpins the 96.5% implied probability for a 27°C overnight low in Shanghai on August 25. Late-summer conditions, including elevated humidity, light winds, and typical August cloud patterns, align with climatological baselines where minimum temperatures cluster around 25–27°C, with recent daily forecasts consistently projecting this threshold rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Official monitoring from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration supports stable atmospheric conditions without incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected overnight. Trader positioning reflects this model agreement and historical precedent, though an unexpected shift in steering patterns or localized precipitation could still alter the realized minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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