Current forecast consensus from numerical models positions overnight lows in Shanghai near 26–27°C on August 26, driving the market-implied probabilities of 57% for 27°C and 34% for 26°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, light easterly winds, and partly cloudy skies limit radiative cooling overnight while maintaining high humidity that moderates temperature drops. Recent model runs show little shift from this range, consistent with climatological August minimums around 25–27°C and the absence of incoming frontal systems or heavy precipitation that could alter the thermal profile before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 26?
27°C 57%
26°C 34%
25°C 5%
28°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
34%
27°C
57%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 57%
26°C 34%
25°C 5%
28°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$232 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$190 Vol.
2%
25°C
$76 Vol.
5%
26°C
$439 Vol.
34%
27°C
$277 Vol.
57%
28°C
$50 Vol.
4%
29°C
$82 Vol.
1%
30°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$154 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$220 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from numerical models positions overnight lows in Shanghai near 26–27°C on August 26, driving the market-implied probabilities of 57% for 27°C and 34% for 26°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, light easterly winds, and partly cloudy skies limit radiative cooling overnight while maintaining high humidity that moderates temperature drops. Recent model runs show little shift from this range, consistent with climatological August minimums around 25–27°C and the absence of incoming frontal systems or heavy precipitation that could alter the thermal profile before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,863End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from numerical models positions overnight lows in Shanghai near 26–27°C on August 26, driving the market-implied probabilities of 57% for 27°C and 34% for 26°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, light easterly winds, and partly cloudy skies limit radiative cooling overnight while maintaining high humidity that moderates temperature drops. Recent model runs show little shift from this range, consistent with climatological August minimums around 25–27°C and the absence of incoming frontal systems or heavy precipitation that could alter the thermal profile before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,863End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from numerical models positions overnight lows in Shanghai near 26–27°C on August 26, driving the market-implied probabilities of 57% for 27°C and 34% for 26°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, light easterly winds, and partly cloudy skies limit radiative cooling overnight while maintaining high humidity that moderates temperature drops. Recent model runs show little shift from this range, consistent with climatological August minimums around 25–27°C and the absence of incoming frontal systems or heavy precipitation that could alter the thermal profile before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions