**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a 25°C minimum in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), with 24°C a close secondary outcome (29.5%).** This positioning reflects real-time aggregation of forecasts showing the overnight low settling near 25–26°C under persistent East Asian summer monsoon conditions. Key scientific drivers include extensive cloud cover and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity (typically 70–85%). These factors suppress temperature drops below the seasonal baseline of roughly 26°C. Recent model runs from regional meteorological centers align on this range amid overcast skies and light winds, preventing both stronger cooling under clear conditions and any anomalous warming. Earlier August typhoon activity (such as Dolphin) has contributed to lingering moisture and cloudiness across southern China, reinforcing the current pattern without introducing significant cooling from stronger systems. Historical August climatology for Shenzhen supports minimums clustered around 25–27°C during active monsoon periods, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 24–25°C. Resolution will hinge on official observational data at the close of the 24-hour period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?
24°C 34%
26°C 4.6%
23°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
34%
25°C
65%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
24°C 34%
26°C 4.6%
23°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
23°C or below
$164 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
34%
25°C
$172 Vol.
65%
26°C
$541 Vol.
5%
27°C
$190 Vol.
1%
28°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a 25°C minimum in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), with 24°C a close secondary outcome (29.5%).** This positioning reflects real-time aggregation of forecasts showing the overnight low settling near 25–26°C under persistent East Asian summer monsoon conditions.
Key scientific drivers include extensive cloud cover and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity (typically 70–85%). These factors suppress temperature drops below the seasonal baseline of roughly 26°C. Recent model runs from regional meteorological centers align on this range amid overcast skies and light winds, preventing both stronger cooling under clear conditions and any anomalous warming.
Earlier August typhoon activity (such as Dolphin) has contributed to lingering moisture and cloudiness across southern China, reinforcing the current pattern without introducing significant cooling from stronger systems. Historical August climatology for Shenzhen supports minimums clustered around 25–27°C during active monsoon periods, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 24–25°C. Resolution will hinge on official observational data at the close of the 24-hour period.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,627End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a 25°C minimum in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), with 24°C a close secondary outcome (29.5%).** This positioning reflects real-time aggregation of forecasts showing the overnight low settling near 25–26°C under persistent East Asian summer monsoon conditions.
Key scientific drivers include extensive cloud cover and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity (typically 70–85%). These factors suppress temperature drops below the seasonal baseline of roughly 26°C. Recent model runs from regional meteorological centers align on this range amid overcast skies and light winds, preventing both stronger cooling under clear conditions and any anomalous warming.
Earlier August typhoon activity (such as Dolphin) has contributed to lingering moisture and cloudiness across southern China, reinforcing the current pattern without introducing significant cooling from stronger systems. Historical August climatology for Shenzhen supports minimums clustered around 25–27°C during active monsoon periods, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 24–25°C. Resolution will hinge on official observational data at the close of the 24-hour period.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,627End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a 25°C minimum in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), with 24°C a close secondary outcome (29.5%).** This positioning reflects real-time aggregation of forecasts showing the overnight low settling near 25–26°C under persistent East Asian summer monsoon conditions. Key scientific drivers include extensive cloud cover and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while maintaining high humidity (typically 70–85%). These factors suppress temperature drops below the seasonal baseline of roughly 26°C. Recent model runs from regional meteorological centers align on this range amid overcast skies and light winds, preventing both stronger cooling under clear conditions and any anomalous warming. Earlier August typhoon activity (such as Dolphin) has contributed to lingering moisture and cloudiness across southern China, reinforcing the current pattern without introducing significant cooling from stronger systems. Historical August climatology for Shenzhen supports minimums clustered around 25–27°C during active monsoon periods, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 24–25°C. Resolution will hinge on official observational data at the close of the 24-hour period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions