**Persistent frontal activity and high humidity are keeping overnight lows elevated in Tokyo ahead of September 8.** A stationary front off the Pacific coast continues to deliver cloud cover, scattered showers, and moist southerly flow, limiting radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts show nighttime readings clustered around 24–26°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with dew points near 24–25°C. This pattern explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C (36.0%) and 26°C (36.5%), with 24°C (18.0%) and 20°C or below (17.0%) reflecting residual uncertainty in exact clearing timing or localized shower effects. Historical early-September minima average near 21–22°C, but the current warm, humid air mass—reinforced by recent heavy rainfall—has shifted the distribution higher. Upcoming model runs and JMA updates on frontal progression will likely refine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of the 24–26°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
25°C 36%
26°C 35%
27°C 27%
23°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
13%
21°C
1%
22°C
18%
23°C
19%
24°C
18%
25°C
36%
26°C
35%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 36%
26°C 35%
27°C 27%
23°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
$42 Vol.
13%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
36%
26°C
$51 Vol.
35%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
18%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent frontal activity and high humidity are keeping overnight lows elevated in Tokyo ahead of September 8.** A stationary front off the Pacific coast continues to deliver cloud cover, scattered showers, and moist southerly flow, limiting radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts show nighttime readings clustered around 24–26°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with dew points near 24–25°C.
This pattern explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C (36.0%) and 26°C (36.5%), with 24°C (18.0%) and 20°C or below (17.0%) reflecting residual uncertainty in exact clearing timing or localized shower effects. Historical early-September minima average near 21–22°C, but the current warm, humid air mass—reinforced by recent heavy rainfall—has shifted the distribution higher. Upcoming model runs and JMA updates on frontal progression will likely refine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of the 24–26°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$93End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent frontal activity and high humidity are keeping overnight lows elevated in Tokyo ahead of September 8.** A stationary front off the Pacific coast continues to deliver cloud cover, scattered showers, and moist southerly flow, limiting radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts show nighttime readings clustered around 24–26°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with dew points near 24–25°C.
This pattern explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C (36.0%) and 26°C (36.5%), with 24°C (18.0%) and 20°C or below (17.0%) reflecting residual uncertainty in exact clearing timing or localized shower effects. Historical early-September minima average near 21–22°C, but the current warm, humid air mass—reinforced by recent heavy rainfall—has shifted the distribution higher. Upcoming model runs and JMA updates on frontal progression will likely refine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of the 24–26°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$93End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent frontal activity and high humidity are keeping overnight lows elevated in Tokyo ahead of September 8.** A stationary front off the Pacific coast continues to deliver cloud cover, scattered showers, and moist southerly flow, limiting radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts show nighttime readings clustered around 24–26°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with dew points near 24–25°C. This pattern explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C (36.0%) and 26°C (36.5%), with 24°C (18.0%) and 20°C or below (17.0%) reflecting residual uncertainty in exact clearing timing or localized shower effects. Historical early-September minima average near 21–22°C, but the current warm, humid air mass—reinforced by recent heavy rainfall—has shifted the distribution higher. Upcoming model runs and JMA updates on frontal progression will likely refine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of the 24–26°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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