The Opportunity Party’s consistent polling performance above New Zealand’s 5 percent party-vote threshold throughout the 2026 campaign has anchored trader expectations for 7-9 seats in the November 7 election. Recent surveys placed the party at 5.1-7.2 percent, translating under MMP to roughly seven list seats with no electorate wins, a result reinforced by the preliminary count of 6.0 percent yielding exactly seven MPs. This outcome reflects sustained voter support for the party’s policy platform amid a fragmented parliament where neither major bloc secured a majority on its own. Special votes and the official declaration scheduled for 27 November remain the primary variables that could produce minor adjustments, though historical patterns indicate limited movement from preliminary figures in this range.