Ongoing fighting between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to shape low expectations for a near-term ceasefire, driven by mutual distrust, repeated violations of prior truces, and external military support. Recent drone strikes by both sides, including RSF attacks on El Obeid and northern cities in mid-August 2026 and an SAF strike in Darfur earlier that month, underscore active offensives rather than de-escalation. Quad-led proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by political talks, advanced since September 2025, remain stalled after SAF rejections and only partial RSF acceptance. International coordination through the Quintet and UN mechanisms has yielded no binding agreement, with traders likely pricing in these persistent battlefield dynamics and the absence of credible enforcement mechanisms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$119,325 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
9%
$119,325 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$14,787 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing fighting between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to shape low expectations for a near-term ceasefire, driven by mutual distrust, repeated violations of prior truces, and external military support. Recent drone strikes by both sides, including RSF attacks on El Obeid and northern cities in mid-August 2026 and an SAF strike in Darfur earlier that month, underscore active offensives rather than de-escalation. Quad-led proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by political talks, advanced since September 2025, remain stalled after SAF rejections and only partial RSF acceptance. International coordination through the Quintet and UN mechanisms has yielded no binding agreement, with traders likely pricing in these persistent battlefield dynamics and the absence of credible enforcement mechanisms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$119,325End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing fighting between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to shape low expectations for a near-term ceasefire, driven by mutual distrust, repeated violations of prior truces, and external military support. Recent drone strikes by both sides, including RSF attacks on El Obeid and northern cities in mid-August 2026 and an SAF strike in Darfur earlier that month, underscore active offensives rather than de-escalation. Quad-led proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by political talks, advanced since September 2025, remain stalled after SAF rejections and only partial RSF acceptance. International coordination through the Quintet and UN mechanisms has yielded no binding agreement, with traders likely pricing in these persistent battlefield dynamics and the absence of credible enforcement mechanisms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$119,325End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing fighting between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to shape low expectations for a near-term ceasefire, driven by mutual distrust, repeated violations of prior truces, and external military support. Recent drone strikes by both sides, including RSF attacks on El Obeid and northern cities in mid-August 2026 and an SAF strike in Darfur earlier that month, underscore active offensives rather than de-escalation. Quad-led proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by political talks, advanced since September 2025, remain stalled after SAF rejections and only partial RSF acceptance. International coordination through the Quintet and UN mechanisms has yielded no binding agreement, with traders likely pricing in these persistent battlefield dynamics and the absence of credible enforcement mechanisms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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