Chen Ting-fei, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee and incumbent legislator who secured her party's Tainan mayoral nomination after winning a January 2026 primary against Lin Chun-hsien, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market. Tainan has remained a DPP stronghold since becoming a special municipality in 2010, and recent registration confirmed a four-candidate field for the November 28 vote, including KMT legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh. Web-based polls conducted in September show Chen maintaining leads exceeding 90 percentage points over Hsieh, reflecting sustained voter support for the DPP ticket amid the party's broader local election positioning. Minor candidates and independents register negligible shares, consistent with historical patterns in the municipality where DPP incumbency advantages have prevailed in recent cycles.