President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan established a 10-member expert commission in May 2025 to prepare a new “civilian” constitution, with AKP parliamentary groups continuing internal drafting work into 2026. As of mid-2026, however, no completed draft has been submitted to the full parliament, cross-party negotiations remain absent, and opposition parties have stayed outside formal talks. Constitutional amendments in Turkey normally require either a two-thirds parliamentary majority or a qualified three-fifths vote followed by a referendum; without broader legislative support or an accelerated timeline, the procedural steps needed for an official referendum announcement by year-end appear unlikely. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no such announcement will occur before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
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Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
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Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan established a 10-member expert commission in May 2025 to prepare a new “civilian” constitution, with AKP parliamentary groups continuing internal drafting work into 2026. As of mid-2026, however, no completed draft has been submitted to the full parliament, cross-party negotiations remain absent, and opposition parties have stayed outside formal talks. Constitutional amendments in Turkey normally require either a two-thirds parliamentary majority or a qualified three-fifths vote followed by a referendum; without broader legislative support or an accelerated timeline, the procedural steps needed for an official referendum announcement by year-end appear unlikely. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no such announcement will occur before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan established a 10-member expert commission in May 2025 to prepare a new “civilian” constitution, with AKP parliamentary groups continuing internal drafting work into 2026. As of mid-2026, however, no completed draft has been submitted to the full parliament, cross-party negotiations remain absent, and opposition parties have stayed outside formal talks. Constitutional amendments in Turkey normally require either a two-thirds parliamentary majority or a qualified three-fifths vote followed by a referendum; without broader legislative support or an accelerated timeline, the procedural steps needed for an official referendum announcement by year-end appear unlikely. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no such announcement will occur before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan established a 10-member expert commission in May 2025 to prepare a new “civilian” constitution, with AKP parliamentary groups continuing internal drafting work into 2026. As of mid-2026, however, no completed draft has been submitted to the full parliament, cross-party negotiations remain absent, and opposition parties have stayed outside formal talks. Constitutional amendments in Turkey normally require either a two-thirds parliamentary majority or a qualified three-fifths vote followed by a referendum; without broader legislative support or an accelerated timeline, the procedural steps needed for an official referendum announcement by year-end appear unlikely. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no such announcement will occur before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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