Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott commands 94% trader consensus to win Vermont's August 11 Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his overwhelming popularity after a 52-point landslide re-election in 2024 and strong incumbency advantages in the moderate Vermont GOP. Recent circulation of petitions by his campaign in early April signals firm intent ahead of the May 28 filing deadline, bolstering confidence amid polls showing majority support for another term. Challenger John Rodgers, the Republican lieutenant governor, trails at 5% due to limited momentum despite his 2024 upset win. Scenarios to shift odds include Scott unexpectedly declining the race, a late-breaking scandal, or health issues, though historical patterns favor dominant incumbents like Scott in low-turnout primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPhil Scott
94%
John Rodgers
10%
Phil Scott
94%
John Rodgers
10%
If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott commands 94% trader consensus to win Vermont's August 11 Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his overwhelming popularity after a 52-point landslide re-election in 2024 and strong incumbency advantages in the moderate Vermont GOP. Recent circulation of petitions by his campaign in early April signals firm intent ahead of the May 28 filing deadline, bolstering confidence amid polls showing majority support for another term. Challenger John Rodgers, the Republican lieutenant governor, trails at 5% due to limited momentum despite his 2024 upset win. Scenarios to shift odds include Scott unexpectedly declining the race, a late-breaking scandal, or health issues, though historical patterns favor dominant incumbents like Scott in low-turnout primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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