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Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

icon for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Gonzalo 44.6%

Other 27.0%

Hanna 12.0%

Isaias 11.7%

Polymarket

$40,803 Vol.

Gonzalo 44.6%

Other 27.0%

Hanna 12.0%

Isaias 11.7%

Polymarket

$40,803 Vol.

Cristobal

$2,642 Vol.

<1%

Dolly

$3,973 Vol.

<1%

Edouard

$4,657 Vol.

3%

Fay

$14,876 Vol.

3%

Gonzalo

$3,082 Vol.

45%

Hanna

$900 Vol.

27%

Isaias

$1,509 Vol.

26%

Josephine

$934 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$975 Vol.

4%

Leah

$868 Vol.

1%

Marco

$635 Vol.

<1%

Nana

$560 Vol.

<1%

Omar

$614 Vol.

<1%

Paulette

$664 Vol.

<1%

Rene

$558 Vol.

<1%

Sally

$584 Vol.

<1%

Teddy

$563 Vol.

<1%

Vicky

$590 Vol.

<1%

Wilfred

$613 Vol.

<1%

Other

$1,006 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Strong El Niño-driven wind shear has suppressed Atlantic hurricane formation through mid-September 2026, producing only six tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay—with zero reaching 64 kt sustained winds.** Official NHC data show accumulated cyclone energy at just 6.3 units, roughly 8% of the 1991–2020 average, as elevated shear disrupts organization. Fay, the most recent system, peaked at 60 kt before weakening. With the next name after Fay being Gonzalo, followed by Hanna and Isaias, market-implied odds reflect trader focus on the first system likely to intensify amid persistently unfavorable conditions. The season has already broken the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane (previously September 11). October monitoring by the NHC and updated model runs will determine whether any late-season development shifts probabilities toward later names or an unusually quiet year overall.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$40,803
End Date
Nov 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Strong El Niño-driven wind shear has suppressed Atlantic hurricane formation through mid-September 2026, producing only six tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay—with zero reaching 64 kt sustained winds.** Official NHC data show accumulated cyclone energy at just 6.3 units, roughly 8% of the 1991–2020 average, as elevated shear disrupts organization. Fay, the most recent system, peaked at 60 kt before weakening. With the next name after Fay being Gonzalo, followed by Hanna and Isaias, market-implied odds reflect trader focus on the first system likely to intensify amid persistently unfavorable conditions. The season has already broken the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane (previously September 11). October monitoring by the NHC and updated model runs will determine whether any late-season development shifts probabilities toward later names or an unusually quiet year overall.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$40,803
End Date
Nov 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gonzalo" at 45%, followed by "Hanna" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" has generated $40.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is "Gonzalo" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hanna" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.