Persistent low water levels along the Danube, particularly at the Budapest gauge hovering well below the 93 cm threshold defining normal navigation conditions, underpin trader positioning on the October window. Prolonged drought conditions across Central Europe since spring, combined with 31 percent below-average rainfall in the Inn valley and Bavarian reaches over the past 45 days, have kept flows suppressed through mid-September. Short-term forecasts indicate limited precipitation through late September, reducing prospects for a rapid rebound before October 1 and explaining the minimal 2.1 percent probability assigned to the September 15-30 period. Seasonal patterns of lowest annual flows in autumn further support the 62.5 percent consensus on October recovery, while the 37.5 percent on failure to reach normal by November 1 reflects uncertainty over whether sufficient autumn rains will materialize in time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the Danube River return to normal levels?
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 63%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 37.5%
September 15 - 30, 2026 2.1%
$92,589 Vol.
$92,589 Vol.
Nov 1, 2026
September 15 - 30, 2026
2%
October 1 - 31, 2026
63%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
37%
October 1 - 31, 2026 63%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 37.5%
September 15 - 30, 2026 2.1%
$92,589 Vol.
$92,589 Vol.
Nov 1, 2026
September 15 - 30, 2026
$33,247 Vol.
2%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$16,968 Vol.
63%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$19,453 Vol.
37%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low water levels along the Danube, particularly at the Budapest gauge hovering well below the 93 cm threshold defining normal navigation conditions, underpin trader positioning on the October window. Prolonged drought conditions across Central Europe since spring, combined with 31 percent below-average rainfall in the Inn valley and Bavarian reaches over the past 45 days, have kept flows suppressed through mid-September. Short-term forecasts indicate limited precipitation through late September, reducing prospects for a rapid rebound before October 1 and explaining the minimal 2.1 percent probability assigned to the September 15-30 period. Seasonal patterns of lowest annual flows in autumn further support the 62.5 percent consensus on October recovery, while the 37.5 percent on failure to reach normal by November 1 reflects uncertainty over whether sufficient autumn rains will materialize in time.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Volume
$92,589End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low water levels along the Danube, particularly at the Budapest gauge hovering well below the 93 cm threshold defining normal navigation conditions, underpin trader positioning on the October window. Prolonged drought conditions across Central Europe since spring, combined with 31 percent below-average rainfall in the Inn valley and Bavarian reaches over the past 45 days, have kept flows suppressed through mid-September. Short-term forecasts indicate limited precipitation through late September, reducing prospects for a rapid rebound before October 1 and explaining the minimal 2.1 percent probability assigned to the September 15-30 period. Seasonal patterns of lowest annual flows in autumn further support the 62.5 percent consensus on October recovery, while the 37.5 percent on failure to reach normal by November 1 reflects uncertainty over whether sufficient autumn rains will materialize in time.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$92,589End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels along the Danube, particularly at the Budapest gauge hovering well below the 93 cm threshold defining normal navigation conditions, underpin trader positioning on the October window. Prolonged drought conditions across Central Europe since spring, combined with 31 percent below-average rainfall in the Inn valley and Bavarian reaches over the past 45 days, have kept flows suppressed through mid-September. Short-term forecasts indicate limited precipitation through late September, reducing prospects for a rapid rebound before October 1 and explaining the minimal 2.1 percent probability assigned to the September 15-30 period. Seasonal patterns of lowest annual flows in autumn further support the 62.5 percent consensus on October recovery, while the 37.5 percent on failure to reach normal by November 1 reflects uncertainty over whether sufficient autumn rains will materialize in time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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